China Swine Flu Update & Pork Prices Skyrocket

Thanks to michelman for this lead on Twitter, Price of bacon to rocket as African swine flu hits China. This is actually an understatement, because even if the world can produce more pork, China will voraciously take in every kilogram that is available across the planet at the moment to alleviate their food shortages. Citizens are now angry and are asking a lot of questions as to why the Chinese government cannot control this African swine fever outbreak.

New map was put out by FCStone, so you see the hot spots. Every circle in this map has verified and reported African swine fever outbreak cases. The larger circles obviously, indicate more incidents, but it is quirky that this is only isolated to China. Not even one case has migrated to any of those other countries in Asia. Is there some kind of damage control to try to limit the fear, or what? I do not know, but it is just so consolidated that I can hardly believe it. This is my personal opinion though, and you can agree or disagree. Then again, look closely at this new map that was just put out.

Also, from Reuters AG News, up to 200 million pigs are to be culled.

To give you a proper perspective, China consumes about 28% of the world’s meat, including almost half of the pork globally. This is not a little bit of pork and China is going to be looking for only a couple extra pigs to make some bacon. They literally gobble up half the world’s pork every year.

National Hog Farmer put out some good statistics on Chinese pork production, and accordingly, this is going to plummet up to 35%. These numbers are very conservative though. More importantly, that 30 to 35% is larger than the entire US pork production for an entire year. That is the entire pork production for Europe in a single year.

This will very likely increase pork prices globally as the Chinese government starts scouring the planet to look for pork. At present, Chinese citizens are asking a lot of questions regarding this. How is it that you, leaders of the government of China, the omnipotent one, cannot control this virus or food prices?

This is so deadly, that every single infected animal has a 100% fatality / mortality rate. Food prices are going berserk and a lot of people are complaining, that they cannot get a supply of meat or that when they do it is four or five times the usual price. Why indeed can you not control that, omnipotent CCP?

I want to bring you over here to Feeder Flash with Corbitt Wall, he puts out this type of graph daily. If you are looking for information on beef and pork, this is definitely a one-stop shop and one of the best YouTube channels to get you into the markets, to help you see what is going on with beef and cattle, as well as pork.

This is the slide he had on April 12th update, Weekly USA Pork Export Sales and Shipments to China. Notice the huge red spike in the chart. That is the largest amount of pork exported out to China ever. Something is definitely going on in terms of the current supply and demand of pork over there.

So, to help us with the analysis, I pulled this off FCStone report. The right graph is of Pork vs. Beef and the left graph is of Pork vs. Lamb.

Following beef prices on the right chart starting from November 2017 beef prices are continuously up, but now, it is expected that pork prices are going to catch up quickly and may even surpass those prices. So, consumer inflation in China is running out of control for food. I knew then that this was going to be one of the catalysts for the downfall of China, during this Grand Solar Minimum.

Because as we see through history, in every Grand Solar Minimum, China collapses. There is no way around this. The Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts, thereby affecting the monsoon patterns.

That in turn affects the amount of water that comes down or does not come down. This is beginning to cause the Heilongjiang Northern grain growing area to go offline. This has already started as evidenced by the decrease of crop yields, across the board, if you look at all grain production in China this year.

This hog pricing will eventually move over to pork pricing. As shown in the chart (above), the least amount of price increase is in Jilin, that is in the north, blue box indicating 11% increases in food prices. This is just since September of 2018. Look at Hangzhou, that is bordering Shanghai. It shows a 25% increase in meat prices.

Additionally, Chinese grain yields are down, so grain prices are up. In fact, everything else is rising, but wages are static. They have neither moved nor budged upward, while everything else circulating around the society that you need to stay alive, such as food and housing, keeps going up in price.

Anyway, with the economic downturn in China, new laws were passed and now the central government mandates that businesses cannot go out of business anymore. This means, they will not let them file for bankruptcy, so they have to keep running at a loss.

We are going to see more and more of these types of effects as the economy stagnates and contracts, because people are going to spend more money on food as we move forward to the Grand Solar Minimum than they would on regular consumer spending products. Seriously, this scares me a little bit because this is the future of our food supply.

The image that you see below is pork from China, which is absolutely, 100% contaminated with swine flu. Somebody in China packed this up, put it in containers and sent a million pounds of virus contaminated pork to New Jersey. This is the largest seizure of this kind in the United States.

Please take note of this, somebody made a conscious choice in China, knowing that those pigs were contaminated because they were already dead from the virus, to process this and turn them into pork that you are going to eat. This is the level that we are coming down, the selling of contaminated products, just to stay in business.

Below is the map I put together in 2017 with the red circles where the grain losses are occurring right now. It was not rocket science to put this together because this is exactly where the collapse in grain production occurred during the Ming Dynasty, the Yuan Dynasty, and the Tang Dynasty.

In every Grand Solar Minimum, agriculture falls out in these same places. This is happening again. They are now having difficulty growing food in these areas.

China is not the only country affected. Look at what is happening with our planting season right now. Late season blizzard rolling over Nebraska delaying planting even further. (BELOW) image is out from Feeder Flash April 12, he stated that the day prior to the blizzard it was 50 degrees Fahrenheit and then suddenly snow and white out conditions in Wyoming and all the way to Nebraska.

You will have to learn how to grow, store and process your own food, so you can keep it for a longer period of time, because the further we get into this Grand Solar Minimum intensification, food prices are going to continue to escalate, like what we are seeing around the planet.

Thanks for reading, I hope you got something out of the article. If you like more information like this I produce the tri-weekly podcast Mini Ice Age Conversations, 30 minutes of in-depth analysis on the GSM you can take on the go.

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(MIAC #205) When There Are Food Riots in Cities, Are Governments Ready?

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*** Today’s Story Links ***

Feeder flash pork rumors confirmed 4/12

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/custom-reports

Agricultural export sales USA

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

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