I remember concluding that Biden was not capable of mounting a challenge to Trump. It was not the night of the debate as it was possible that he just had a bad night. It was after the debate when he tried to show he was not cognitively compromised with speeches and a press conference and he could not.
Right now the data suggests that Trump has a slight lead on Harris. The data may be wrong. There may be a Republican overcount in 2022 and it may be happening here. The famed Democratic ground game may offset the Republican advantage. In other words, and especially after I and just about everyone got it wrong in 2016, I cannot predict a Trump win. However, if he is truly ahead right now then I do not see how Harris can come back.
The contest for those who are not partisan is Trump's loathsome character against Harris's tie to Biden and being an unknown. She has gotten all the votes she is going to get by attacking Trump. He is a well-known quantity. Yet, as I see the excepts of her interviews, she does not bring clarity to her plans but just attacks Trump. That will not win her the election. She needs to more fully pivot and talk about what she is about.
But I think she cannot do that any more than Biden could show that he was mentally ready to be president for four more years. For whatever reason she cannot project a vision for what her administration will look like. She recycles old speech lines then address the questions given to her.
If the sampling is wrong or the Democratic ground game works the may still win in 10 days. But if she does not win I think people will come back and argue that her lack of an ability to project a vision is a key reason why that is the case. In about 10 days we will start to see if that lack of vision dooms her.