WHO: CFR of Covid19 is 3.4% - nearly twice as high as the Spanish Flu of 1918

theouterlight (75) in hive-100421 • 5 years ago

Recently the WHO published what they say is the CFR of Covid19 which they equate to 3.4% of all cases. This is a case fatality rate that is almost twice as high as the Spanish Influenza outbreak of 1918 - and this is accounting for modern medial intervention.

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5 years ago by theouterlight (75)

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lucylin (67) · 5 years ago

I'm having probs logging into 3speak (steemconnect) ....are they up as per usual?

(I noticed you uploaded this a few mins ago)

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theouterlight (75) · 5 years ago

It worked okay for me, but there sometimes are problems, no doubt about that. Hopefully it works without problems for you.

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3 votes

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lucylin (67) · 5 years ago

I got there eventually - just uploaded! - enjoy!
https://steemit.com/hive-100421/@lucylin/nxkuvibq

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introduce.bot (63) · 5 years ago

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erik94 (31) · 5 years ago (edited)

Do you think this increased rate will guarantee more expected deaths in the US and worldwide?

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theouterlight (75) · 5 years ago

I think the death rate, will likely increase when the medical services are overwhelmed, because the 3.4 CFR is related to forced medical services offered ICU etc., so it will likely go up. But one can only hope that it burns out - which I think is unlikely. I have little hope that governments will contain it. It really looks like they are not able to contain it, because they have ability to think in terms of shutting down airlines - it seems like want everything to remain as normal. They have been lying, in my opinion, for months now to delay panic and program people to think this is "just the flu". Well, that might have allay panic, but now we all must pay the piper. Thanks for the comment!

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valued-customer (67) · 5 years ago (edited)

The Lancet has published a study of the feasibility of containing this pandemic.

"Simulated outbreaks starting with five initial cases, an R0 of 1·5, and 0% transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability; however, the probability of controlling an outbreak decreased with the number of initial cases, when R0 was 2·5 or 3·5 and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an R0 of 1·5 were controllable with less than 50% of contacts successfully traced. To control the majority of outbreaks, for R0 of 2·5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced. The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R0 was 1·5. For R0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset."

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2214-109X%2820%2930074-7

The longer the asymptomatic transmission, the more difficult it is to do contact tracing, and the more likely the pandemic is to be impossible to stop. Worse, the actual estimated R0 of between 4 and 7 dramatically reduces the ability of the spread to be stopped.

We need to act ourselves, rather than rely on government to save us. They can't contact trace this epidemic. We need to wipe down public surfaces like pens, doorknobs, counters, shopping cart handles, and stop shaking hands, kissing, and hugging in greeting. No more public gatherings. We can stop this, but the government can't.

Sadly, lying and downplaying the danger of anything only causes panic when the actual facts are finally understood, because people suddenly realize they are in danger, and haven't properly prepared. This is why I so greatly appreciate that you only speak the truth as you understand it.

Thanks!

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sunlit7 (59) · 5 years ago

One of the worlds largest economic engines brought down, the stock market brought down, the feds do a historic rate cut, things exploding everywhere but....

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