The level of the 2nd wave is almost similar to the 1st wave.
Please, remember that the current ratio of less than 3m short-term holders is around 40%.
When the 2nd waves appeared again, BTC price entered the banana zone, and altseasons started. So, I think this cycle is entering the banana(parabolic) zone.
Let's take a look at the ratios of the 2nd waves carefully. The minimum is around 65%, and it tends to decrease. Therefore, my conservative view is the top of the ratio of less than 3m short-term holders this cycle would likely be around 70%.
Therefore, my conclusion is the crypto market is still potential to explosively grow, and not in a bubble state. So, this is the reason why I'm still waiting for the time when the ratio of less than 3m short-term holders is approaching 70%.
However, ordinary people and retail investors are just like cherry pickers. They're pursuing just short-term profits. They don't know how much profit will be different in the skyrocketing zone.
I've seen this process in 2021, and retail investors just saw roaring after they sold everything.
In 2018, I heard a personal experience from a rich person that happened in 2017, and he said retail investors just saw surging after they early sold ICO(Initial Coin Offering) tokens.
Like the Fractal theory, I hope you see the forest rather than a tree.