I think there is an answer in the ETH/BTC monthly candlesticks chart for this cycle's ATH(All Time High) of ETH(Ethereum).
Let's take a look at the chart. ETH price has been moving between 0.1~0.01 BTC. When the crypto market was bearish, ETH price was closer to 0.01 BTC. But when the crypto market was bullish, ETH price was closer to 0.1 BTC.
Now ETH/BTC is around 0.034 BTC. I assume this price is almost in the bottom. Therefore, if the next 3rd altseason already started, ETH/BTC might go around by 0.1 BTC. In order to set the range for ETH ATH this cycle, ETH/BTC would likely be between 0.08 ~ 0.12 BTC. Therefore, there are 3 scenarios.
ETH ATH this cycle(Scenarios)
• Bearish scenario: 0.08 BTC
• Bullish scenario: 0.1 BTC
• Extremely bullish scenario: 0.12 BTC
Alright, let's convert these in USD. But, before it, we need to estimate this cycle's BTC ATH first.
In the previous cycle, BTC price increased by around 20x from the bottom to the top. As you know, the increasing rate of BTC price has been decreasing over time.
Therefore, I expect the next increasing rate would likely be around 10x from the bottom to the next ATH.
This cycle's bottom is around $15k. So, my estimate BTC ATH this cycle is $150k. It's my conservative TP(Target Price), which means if the BTC price touches that price, this cycle will finish.
(I say it again. It's my personal opinion.)
But, no one knows the future. What if Donald Trump, the president, accepts BTC as the strategic reserve of the United States? What if the Fed acknowledges BTC as a reserve asset? If these occur, BTC price could go up more like $300k or $500k. But, let's treat these as exceptional scenarios. Because, long-term investors should be rational as always.
So, when it comes to the $150k case for this cycle's BTC ATH, let's convert ETH/BTC scenarios into USD.
ETH ATH this cycle(Scenarios)
• Bearish scenario: 0.08 BTC × 150,000 USD ≈ 12,000 USD/ETH
• Bullish scenario: 0.1 BTC × 150,000 USD ≈ 15,000 USD/ETH
• Extremely bullish scenario: 0.12 BTC × 150,000 USD ≈ 18,000 USD/ETH
I also wonder how much BTC price can go up more..