PlotX Home page
Hello everyone.
Welcome to week 8 in the crypto academy. The past seven weeks have been wonderful.
This post is a homework submitted to Professor @pelon53. He taught "Predictive Markets" and at the end of his lecture, he gave four (4) questions as homework work task.
The questions are:
- Create 5 questions that can be used in the Predictive Market. And explain what 2 of them consist of. Be creative and explain in detail.
- Explore Polymarket, answer and explain the first 2 questions in the Crypto category. Show screenshot.
- Explain in detail a Predictive Market project, it cannot be Augur, Gnosis or those explained in class.
- For you, what will happen to Predictive Markets with blockchain technology? Who will benefit from them?
I will be attending to these questions one after the other.
Question 1
Create 5 questions that can be used in the Predictive Market. And explain what 2 of them consist of. Be creative and explain in detail.
In this section of the question, I am going to create five (5) questions, which can be used in predictive market.
- 1: Will TRX value go up to at least $0.5 before December 31st, 2021
Yes — $ 0.4
No — $ 0.7
Tron is a blockchain in which it's usability claims to be suitable for daily use. The blockchain can handle many transactions at a time compared to Bitcoin and Etherum blockchain. Tron has its native coin and it is known as TRX. The coin was created in the year 2017 by Justin Sun
The current price of TRX: $0.088834 (At the time of writing this)
All time High: $0.231673 (January 5th 2018)
all time low : $0.00180434 (November 12th , 2017)
The picture below shows the all time and high and low
All time high and low
Also, the figure below shows the current price and market cap.
Fig. :TRX Current Price and Market Cap
The chart of of TRX is shown in the image below.
Fig. :Chart of TRX
Now, with all these information gotten, it clearly shows that the all time high of TRX has not even gotten to $0.5. There is still a far distance TRX price will cover if it will reach $0.5 befor 31st of December, 2021.
However, the graph of TRX is showing a very great strength to the upside. So, there is probability that it goes to $ 0.5 before the said date.
Here is the projection
YES
The graph of TRX is showing momentum to the upside and there could be a great momentum to the upside making the price of TRX to reach $0.5. Also, TRX is popular because of of its blockchain. People may demand for more TRX and thereby leading to increase in price.
NO
The all time high of TRX has not reached $0.5. Before the price of The can reach such height, I will take a long time. Hence, there is no probability of the price moving close to $0.5
- 2: Will the President of Nigeria, General Muhammed Bauhri lifts twitter ban for Nigerians before October 1st, 2021.
Yes — $0.6
No — $0.8
In the month of June, on the 5th 2021, Nigeria government put ban on Twitter because the Twitter organizers deleted the tweets the president of Nigeria made on the platform warning the south-eastern people called "igbo." The tweet he made was against the rule of twitter and as such his tweet was deleted from the platform.
News of Nigeria Government of Twitter Ban
Every october 1st is known in Nigeria as Independence day. On the 1st of October 1960, Nigeria became independent from her Colonia master, and as a result of that, Nigerians always celebrate this day. On this day, prisoners in jail are always been released, especially those who have limited data to spend.
Since October 1st is an Independence day, there has been rumors that Nigerian government will lift the ban on Twitter. Some people have been looking for that day. However, there is no real evidence that the Nigerian government will lift the ban. But recently, a news came in that the Twitter ban will still be lifted as the government are reaching agreement with the twitter Company.
News that Nigeria Government will soon lift Twitter Ban
So, with the news and the day of Independence coming, some people are now being confident that Twitter ban will be lifted before October 1st, 2021.
On the other hand, because the current givernment has failed people in so many ways. The government is not faithful with her promise, nothing has been really working in the hand of government, other people believe that twitter ban will not be lifted.
Here is the Projection
YES
The current news just released and the indepence day that's coming at the corner gives some people that the twitter ban will be like before October 1st 2021
NO
The government has not been faithful in little things as she has let down people severally and there is no direct announcement from the President that twitter ban will soon be lifted, hence some other people believe twitter ban will not be lifted before October 1st 2021
- 3: The current number of Binance supported cryptos is 250 and that of Huobi is 209.
Will Huobi supported Cryptos rise above Binance supported Cryptos before the 1st of January, 2022?
Yes — $ 10
No — $14
4: Will Elon Musk rise above Jeff Bezos in the world richest ladder before 1st of December 2021
Yes — $1
No — $0.85: Will Man United score f in first half in her match with Southampton on August 22nd 2021.
Yes — $2
No — $2.5
Question 2
Explore Polymarket, answer and explain the first 2 questions in the Crypto category. Show screenshot.
In this section of the question, I will explore polymarket.
Registration Process
To explore it, visit the official website of polymarket, https://www.polymarket.com. Upon entering the address on the browser, it will will open to poly market homepage.
Polymarket Home page
You click on sign up upon entering your email address. Then, you will see a message notification to go to your email address and verify.
Message Notification to Verify My email
Then, open your mail to verify the message of the polymarket sent to your mail. Upon entering your mail, you will be asked to sign in with a link sent to your mail.
Email Verification: Signing In Through the link
Once you click on the link, a page will be loaded for you. The page will tell you that you have logged in to polymarket. You will be told to go back to the original tab and that you can close this tab.
Message Showing You have successfully logged in
On returning to the original tab, you will see a tab opens for you. You are expected to provide a username which will be displaying on your the website. Choose your favorite username which you can't forget. Also, you can enter referral code if you have. However, referral code is not compulsory. Upon entering the username, click on "create account"
Username Selection Tab
Then, upon clicking on the "create account" , a page will be loaded for you. You will be asked to select the tyoes of matket you have interest in. You can select as many as you like. See the screenshot below.
Selection of the Market of your Interest
Then, next you will be taken to the homepage where you will see the main features I the poly market. Thanks features are market, portfolio and deposit. You will also see your username display at the top of the page. That's the sign that you have been logged in to the website. See the screenshot below.
Homepage with Market, Portfolio and Deposit Feature.
Let's take these features one after the other and see what they have in them. Let's begin with market
Market Feature
Click on "market" in the homepage. Upon clicking on it, you will see category, 'sort by', show resolved and show favorites. You can click category to see different categories of things present in there such as crypto, business etc. Let's see the screenshot below.
Details of features in Market.
Also, you can use "sort by" to sort. You can sort by volume, liquidity etc. You can also click on show resolved to see the market which has been resolved. In the show favorites you will see the favorites if you have added it.
Now, let's see another feature.
Portfolio Feature
In the portfolio, you will see liquidity, and position. Once you click position, you will see all your position you have taken. You can sort your position by value. There is an option for that.
Portfolio Feature.
The last features we are goin to look at is "deposit." Let's see it very quickly.
Deposit Feature
Click on the deposit in the homepage. Upon clicking on it, you will see a page which shows the step for depositing. The deposit steps is two. Thanks first step is that you will send USDC to a certain address. The second step is where you initiate your deposit. See the screenshot below.
Deposit Steps.
Alternatively, you can use the following methods shown below the first method. The methods options are peer-to-peer, polygon, metamask and credit card
Alternative Deposit Option.
Withdrawal button is right beside deposit. You can click on withdraw to with draw your fund. There are three steps to do that. First, you have to initiate withdraw. It may take up to 3 to 6 hours. Then you send at least 0.0000ETH to a certain address. The third step is to claim your fund. See the screenshot below.
Withdrawal Steps.
There are other alternative options for withdrawal. You can use peer to peer or polygon option. See the screenshot below.
Alternative Options for Withdrawal
Answer and Explanation on the First and Second Crypto Questions.
Now, to see the crypto questions, click on the market in the homepage. Then click category. Once you click this, a pop up features will appear, click on crypto. Then the questions on crypto will appear right in your front. See the screenshot below.
Category: Crypto.
Now, let's begin with question one.
Question 1 in Crypto category:
The question is Will Cardano support smart contract on mainnet by October 1st 2021? See the screenshot below.
Fig. : Question 1 in the Crypto Category.
As it can be seen in the figure above, the market end time is 1st October, 2021, the trading volume is $674,890 and the liquidity is $12, 817.
Traders can bet whether Cardano will support smart contracts on Mainnet before the said date. Traders or participant can pick them outcome by choosing Yes if they think Cardano will support smart contract or they choose No if they think Cardano will not support.
Now, answering this question, the first i can see I that majority of traders have bet that Cardano will support smart contracts on Mainnet before 1st of October, 2021.
In the first place, what prompted this question was as a result of announcement of Alonzo hardfork by the CEO of Cardano, Charles Hoskinson. He said that the hard fork will be done in in mid August, 2021.
Hard fork Announcement By the CEO of Cardano
Since the CEO has announced this, there is probability that the hard fork is performed and Cardano support the smart contract on Mainnet. I want to believe that the CEO may want to keep his word. Then as a result of of many people bet to say Yes, I would also like to say YES if I were to place a bet.
Question 2 in the Crypto Category
The screenshot below shows the question.
Question 2 in the Crypto Category.
As it can be seen from figure above, the market for this prediction ends by December 31st, 2021, the trading volume is $35, 385 and the liquidity $6, 332.
Now, researching about this token, I got to know that it is a token that belongs to to the category of NFT, (non fungible token). Thanks type of token are used for ownership of digital asset such as picture, videos or any other type of art. Although this token are now be used but they are still not popular compared to utility token and all other types or category of tokens.
Also, going to Coinmarketcap to see the details of this token, I realized that the token:
Price is $1.19
Rank is 336
market cap is $120, 809, 119
Fully dilluted market cap is $1, 187, 240538
Volume is $11, 204, 351
See the screenshot below.
SuperRare token detail by CMC
Now, my decision on this is that I will bet No. Having seen all the information and because the coin is also a NFT. It may not have influence like that.
Question 3
Explain in detail a Predictive Market project, it cannot be Augur, Gnosis or those explained in class.
In this section of the question, I'm going to choose PlotX.
The official website website of the market is https://www.plotx.io. PlotX is a type of predictive market which allows you to predict the price of cryptocurrencies and earn reward. PlotX is built on Ethereum blockchain. The prediction on this platform is very easy and the platform is easy to navigate.
On PlotX, before you can predict, you have to connect your wallet, you can sign in with your email.Once you are connected, you can search for different market and select the one you want to predict. Then, you make your prediction either to go bullish or bearish on the asset. You will then be rewarded once the market settle, that goes either direction.
Registration Process
Let's visit the website now. To explore the website, visit https://www.plotx.io. Upon entering the website on the browser, it will open to the homepage. At the the top right of the page, click on sign up to create an account with them.
Let's see the screenshot below.
PlotX Home page
Then, once you click on it, a page will appear right in your front where you will be able to connect your wallet. The available options for wallet is metamask and wallet connect. Alternatively, you can sign through your email. I chose email option.
Sign Up Page
Once you enter your email, a verification will be sent to your mail. You will be asked to log in through the link sent to you.
Link in the Email
Upon clicking on it, you will be logged in. Then you will be told to go back to your original tab, the first tab you were using before logging through email tab.
Logged in Tab.
In your previous tab, you will see that your wallet has been connected successfully. You can now proceed to see all features in PlotX.
"Wallet Connected Successfully" Message
Then, the next thing is to go the homepage to see what features are there on the interface. On the home page interface, we can see "market", and "round history" at the center. Also, by the right hand side at the top, we can see wallet keys, notification icon like bell, and gear setting icon. See the screenshot below.
Features in the Homepage
Deposit, Withdrawal and Prediction
Now, the first thing to do is to click on the wallet key at the the top right side of the page.
Wallet Keys in the Homepage
Upon clicking on it, some features will appear, my fund and my prediction. Click on the "my fund".
"My Fund and Prediction" Tab
Upon clicking on "my fund," you will see deposit, withdraw and buy with fiat. To make a deposit, click on "deposit"
Deposit, Withdraw and Buy with Fiat
Upon clicking on deposit, a page will be displayed for you showing the process to make deposit on PlotX. The first thing you will do is to connect your wallet where you have the PLOT token. After that, you choose the network. Next, you choose the deposit speed and the last step is to make the deposit.
Deposit Process
Alternatively, if you don't have PLOT token in your wallet, you can buy with fiat. This means you have to click "buy with fiat" in figure above above in order to crypto to your wallet with your local currency. You can use bank transfer or debit card. See the figure below.
Buy With Fiat
To withdraw, click on withdraw. Upon clicking on it, you will see the process for withdrawal. Here, you must connect your wallet, choose the network and then enter the withdrawal amount and then click on withdraw.
Withdraw Process
Let's see the prediction page. On prediction page, you are going to see ** total prediction, in-settlement, total returns, and return claimed.**
History of Prediction
Market Feature
Click on the "market" in the homepage.
Market in the Homepage
Upon clicking on it, you will see the list of the crypto assets by clicking on "all" as shown in the rectangle below. You can also search the asset by typing the asset name in the search box.
List of Assets and Search Box
By scrolling down the page, you will see previous round. You will the details of the previous round such as settlement time, reward pool, total pool, prediction and status.
Previous Round Details
By clicking on an asset, It will show various details on the asset. I clicked on ETHUSD. And the question to predict is "will ETH USD value go up or down by tomorrow 2pm?". The prediction details shows at the right side of the page. Participants can predict whether the value will go up, stay flat or go down. See the screenshot below.
Prediction Details for ETHUSD
Round History
The next feature on PlotX is round history. Click on it on the homepage.
Round History in the Homepage
Upon clicking on it, you will see the details of the round history. The details such as settlement time, prediction, total pool status etc
Round History
Question 4
For you, what will happen to Predictive Markets with blockchain technology? Who will benefit from them?
The adoption of blockchain technology is increasing everyday because of its uses. Although, there are predictive markets what have adopted the use of of blockchain but they are still very limited. Predictive Markets is a type of market where participants predict an information either to be true or false. This market is synonymous to gambling.
The use of of blockchain technology in predictive market will increase the span of the Industry. People want to participate in something which will not be dark to them. There are some Industries which is like predictive market in which people play bet by predicting numbers. But many people complain because there's no transparency I the way they judge. For example, there is a popular betting called "Baba-Ijebu" in Nigeria, many people play this game even without clear understanding. Most of the people are always placed in the dark. In essence, adoption of blockchain technology would give transparency to the whole process.
In predictive market, information is quite important. Thanks use information to judge or predict. There are some information which the participants in predictive market may need but because they don't have access to them, they will just predict based on the limited information they have. But adoption of blockchain will make this very easy. Since information can be accessible on the blockchain and it always open to everyone, participants can have access to any kind of information they want.
Furthermore, the use of central system for predictive market cheat participants. When they win a game, the organizers may decide to manipulate it and thereby may not give the exat amount the participants win to them, but the use of blockchain will eradicate cheating since everyone can see for themselves. So the use of blockchain will benefit the participants since they can withdraw their game or profit without any cheating.
In addition, the use of blockchain in predictive market will increase the number of participants. How? When people see the reason to trust the system, they will invite their loved ones to participate. And since there is no anything like darkness with the use of blockchain, people will surely participate, especially those who are very good in predicting games. So the use of blockchain technology will surely Inc the Predictive Markets industry.
Conclusion
Blockchain technology is versatile technology that has been opening the world of finance. It versatility cut across all areas of life.
The recent use of block chain in the predictive market has further reinforced it use and more people are adopting the great benefit therein everyday. With the use of predictive market, difficult questions are tackled by the community which in turns helps to know the mind of the general public concerning issue of any consideration.
This is a new topic in the crypto world. A big thanks to Professor @pelon53 who has introduced us to this great topic as related to blockchain.
N.B: All Screenshot are taken from Plotx, Poly Market, Coinmarket and Coingecko