Weekly Forex Forecast For This Week (28th March - 1st April)

FOREX ANALYSIS #4

Hey there, TraderSaan is here. Today I am going to share my analysis and setup in the week ahead on some pairs like USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURCAD, GBPCAD etc. I am actually a swing trader, meaning I hold my position for 2-3 days or more. So I usually trade at the timframe of 4 hour (H4), 1 hour(H1), or occasionally at 30 miniutes (M30). And one more thing is that I analyze the chart in tradingview and take trade in MT4.
Firstly, I will cover the fundamental analysis and then give an insight of technical part.

Fundamental Outlook

USD
I am currently neutral biased in USD.
• As the Fed chairman Jerome Powell has sounded very hawkish about tightening monetary policy in the last Fed press conference
• And at the same time he also added a statement something like about uncertinity of current world economy for Russia- Ukraine ongoing war. On the other side, if we consider the retail trader sentiment, it has changed to US dollar bullish. So in contrarian view, that's a point to be bearish in USD.
So these are the reasons I am fundamentally neutral in USD.

AUD
My fundamental bias is Bullish in AUD.
• As the commodity(like gold, oil, aluminium, silver) price is going up and up for the geopolical issues of Russia-Ukraine war, so the AUD is strengthing very fast. Some statements say that Austrailan economy is in recovery of its post COVID damages. So we can see a big rally to the upside in AUD.
• The central bank of Australia is about to rate hike in the next month, as they have positive PMI and CPI. That could atrract traders and investors in favour of Aussie Dollar.
These are the reasons I am fundamentally Bullish in AUD.

NZD
I am fundamentally Bullish in NZD.
• Australia is the main business(exports, imports) partner of New Zealand. So strong Australian economy means strong New Zealand economy.
• And the RBNZ( Reserve Bank of New Zealand) had increased 1.25% rate hike. From then, a big rally we have seen in NZD.
These are enough reasons to be Bullish in NZD.

CAD
I am very big Bullish in CAD currently.
• We have seen the Oil price is skyrocket after the Russian invasion to Ukraine. So the CAD is taking full advantage of that. And still the energy demand in the Euro Zone is in peak, so the Oil price is likely to go up untill further news come up.
• The Canada's CPI(Consumer Price Index) and PPI(Production Price Index) of last month was positive. It's an good indication of the CAD's strength.

GBP
I am fundamentally Bearish in GBP
• Bank of England had a very dovish rate 0.10℅ hike last time. Vote was like 8-1. And UK's economy is heavily affected by the geopolitical tentions. Also energy crisis is in the role as they stopped doing bussiness with Russia.

EUR
Fundamentally Bearish.
• There was little bit hawkish sound from the chairman of ECB last time. But the energy crisis in euro zone is still plaing the role. Euro zone is badly affected by Russia- Ukraine war, Covid new variant. So these make the EUR weak.

Now I am going to discuss the Technical part of those pairs.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD : SELL
Now that I am fundamentally Bearish(usd= neutral, cad=bullish) in this pair, so I will look for only Sell or Short entry in the chart. In the USDCAD chart, we see price is in a suport zone now. I will wait for a breakout to the downside of the support zone, and if price make a pullback to the broken zone, I will jump into the market to Short with a healthy Risk to Rewerd.

USDCAD, H4, setup: Breakout-Pullback.

Image source: tradingview, prepared by me

AUDUSD BUY
Now that I am fundamentally Bullish (aud= bullish, usd= neutral) in this pair. So I will look for only Buy entry in the chart of AUDUSD. So far, price is in uptrend, i.e., making higher highs, higher lows and supporting buy a beautiful trendline. And currently price has broken a major resistance zone in the upside, I will be waiting for the price to come back to the broken resistance zone. If this happens, I will go for a Buy entry with a healthy Risk to Reward.

AUDUSD, H4, setup: breakout-pullback.

Image source: tradingview, prepared by me.

NZDUSD BUY
Fundamental of NZDUSD is Bullish(nzd= bullish, usd=neutral). So I will go for Buy this pair. Likewise AUDUSD, price is in uptrend, making higher highs, higher lows and supporting a beautiful trendline. 50&200 MA are alinged upside indicating upward pressure. Price has currently broken the major resistance zone, and if we see the chart very carefully, a false breakout had occured in past at this level, but after a little downward move buyers has taken the control and price has again broken that previous zone. So I am going to wait for a healthy pullback and once pullback is happened, I will Buy.

NZDUSD, H4, setup: breakout-pullback

Image source: tradingview, prepared by me

EURCAD SELL
Fundamentally I am very Bearish(eur=bearish, cad=bullish) in this pair. So I will look for a good appropiate technical structure to Sell EURCAD. This pair is in downtrend, price is making lower lows, lower highs, breaking support zone again and again. And currently price has broken a major support zone, so I am waiting for a pullback. Once the pullback is completed, I am going to Short this pair.

EURCAD, H4, setup: breakout-pullback. E stands for Entry

Image source: tradingview, prepared by me

GBPAUD SELL
Fundamentally I am Bearish( gbp= bearish, aud=bullish) in this pair. So I will only short this pair if I find an appropriate structure in the technical chart. This pair is in downtrend so far. Price is making lower lows, lower highs, breaking support zone again and again. 50&200 MA are aligned downside indicating a downward pressure. Price is currently at below a major support zone, i.e., a Breakout has been happened. So I am waiting for a pullback move. Once the pullback move is done, I am going to sell this pair with a healthy risk to reward.

GBPAUD, H4, setup: breakout-pullback.

Image source: tradingview, prepared by me

These are my setups in the forex market for this week ahead.

The strategy I used in here is BREAKOUT-PULLBACK strategy which I have discussed in details in my previous post. The link is here-
https://steemit.com/money/@sanjibmondal99/the-breakout-pullback-strategy-for-trading

I always take a trade when my fundamental and technical analysis say the same thing. As follows:

Case I
Fundamental = buy, Tchnical = sell, that implies * Not To Trade *

Case II
Fundamental =sell, Technical = buy, that implies * Not To Trade *

Case III
Fundamental = buy, Technical = buy, that implies * Jump In For Buying*

Case IV
Fundamental = sell, Technical = sell, that implies * Jump In For Selling *

Disclaimer: This is not any financial advise or trading mantra. My purpose is to help traders to learn. This post is made for completely educational purpose. Hope it helps.

Thank you very much if you make it to the end. Happy trade.