SEC S16-W3 Steem’s Potential in the Bull Run

Hey Steemian friends!

👉 Considering the current cryptocurrency bull market, what are your specific predictions for the price and performance of the Steem token by the end of 2024? What are the key factors you considered in developing this forecast, and how might these influence Steem's trajectory in the cryptocurrency landscape this year?

The king of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin has started its engines and skyrocketing right now. The big event of Bitcoin halving is expected to be at the end of next month and with the current sentiment we just can only imagine this bull market to stay until the end of this year.

What does it bring to Steem and other altcoins? Probably a good sign and they are likely to join the party when BTC consolidates after the new high. The problem is though “Have we seen the new high yet?”

There are several reasons that we might not see the new high yet and the true potential of Steem yet and here are the reasons for my thoughts in order.

• Bitcoin’s big halving:

Every four years BTC goes through a process called halving to decrease the supply of new coins. Since the coin's inception, we have seen 04 BTC halvings. The last one was in 2020, though we haven’t seen any significant change in the price action right after the halving, it was noticed after about 06 months price rose to 80% and then a year after 560%. Similarly, after every six months (150 days) of BTC halving, we can see this price surge and hence expect a price rise this year too.

^{After 2020 halving BTC had an excellent run}

Reviewing BTC price trends 150 days post halving.

BTC Halving Year	Price on halving day	Price 150 days later	Percentage Increase
2012	$12.35	$127.00	928%
2016	$650.53	$758.81	16.6%
2020	$8,821.42	$10,943.00	24%

However, we haven’t seen such a surge in Steem but when the 2021 altcoin season started Steem broke the $1 mark with a promising future. But global effects such as Covid and economic conditions had affected the whole cryptocurrency market and the rally was reversed.

^{Nearly after 03 years, Steem was able to reach $1 mark again.}

• Bitcoin ETFs approval:

This approval has been a long wait and many investors expected BTC to surge once the approval is given. Even the news related to this subject had an effect on the market. Now there are more investors looking to grow their BTC bags global supply of BTC will be reduced. This has a huge effect in the future and even in this rally, we have seen big players like BlackRock keep buying BTC even at high rates. Also, this is just the BTC ETF we are concerning. There’s a potential that we might see Ethereum ETF within the next 12 months.

^{The growth of new address over the years could be a good sign for future | source}

• User Adaptation to Digital Currencies:

While BTC making all these headlines over several media, new users and investors will likely accept that Digital currencies are the future of transactions. As more people recognize the potential of cryptocurrencies demand will rise up and so is the price.

👉 What technical indicators do you currently recommend to assess the upward trend of the Steem token in the cryptocurrency markets, and why are these indicators relevant in the current context?

We can use numerous indicators to predict future price actions but they all lag behind the past data. The true market behaviour is always determined by forces of demand and supply at the current moment. Hence my favourite tool to use is Support and Resistance Levels. Yes, these levels too determined from the past data but it is quite evident these levels have strong psychological relevance for traders.

Now let’s see the current chart of STEEMUSDT 01 day chart.

^{STEEMUSDT | 01 day | Support and Resistance Levels}

Last year April we saw a huge candle apparently clearing all the liquidity around. That level hasn’t been reached for almost a year and we can see from the 06th of March that this level has been reached with momentum but sadly today we can see a huge red candle once again. So this level is important to break and then retest again in the future price action before we can consolidate this as a support level.

Also, it is important to draw these levels on higher time frames for more accuracy. Hence, I used 01 day time frame and drew my support at the 0.1991 price level. I believe this is a strong support and let’s hope it will never breach again.

The other tool that I would like to use is the Fibonacci retracement tool to recognize the trendlines and key price levels. Once again long time frame will be used to understand these levels. We can clearly see how much these levels have played a role and the recent price surge couldn’t break the 0.5 level. Also, breaking and retesting the 0.382 level is crucial for any uptrend in the future. If the altseason starts we have a possibility to see the price level reaching 0.786 level marked at $0.5552. So this could be a realistic target for 2024 for the highest level.

^{Fibonacci retracement tool to identify key levels}

The next tool I would keep an eye on is Moving averages & RSI. For this one, I use 20 days and 50 days as common settings and you can see that the price is well above both the lines from the last week of February. The good news is every time that price has touched 20 days average bulls have regained the market's bullish momentum by purchasing every dip. Additionally, the RSI hovering around 60% signifies bulls are in command, and price action has a possibility of continuing the uptrend. For bears to alter market dynamics, they have to sell aggressively till they find the price below the 20 day moving average.

^{Moving averages & RSI are the best way to track the current momentum in the market}

By paying attention to these different tools, we get a better picture of where Steem's price might be headed. Even though we're looking at past data, it helps us understand what's happening right now in the crypto market. And that can be pretty helpful when making decisions about buying or selling Steem.

👉 Explain in detail the fundamental characteristics of the Steem blockchain that could contribute to its success in a cryptocurrency bull market. How does Steem's underlying technology stand out from other projects?

Every year we can see a lot of projects comes to the market just to vanish after a brief stint. However, Steemit stands out as the premier decentralized social media platform throughout these years, showcasing its resilience and potential to onboard new users to digital currencies. A user like me is a proof of Steemit. So let me share some key points highlighting Steemit's distinctive features compared to other projects.

• Decentralized Social Media:

Steem operates as a decentralized social media platform and nobody has a control over it. This setup lets users create content, sharing blogs and pictures. Anyone can be a creator (author) or curator (investor) and build a social network in this eco system and get rewarded for it. Operating since 2016, Steemit proudly the longest-running blockchain-based social media platform welcoming users from all around the globe.

• Proof-of-Brain (PoB):

Steem has a unique way of reward distribution for the content. It's called Proof-of-Brain. Basically, the better the content and better the engagement the more you get rewarded. Only users within the system will decide whether they like the content and curate accordingly. So, if you write a really interesting blog post or share something awesome, you could earn some cryptocurrency (STEEM).

• Fast and Scalable:

Steem is capable of processing 10,000 transactions per second. Hence, even when lots of people are using it at the same time, it doesn't get jammed up. This speediness is really important, especially when there's a lot of activity happening in the crypto market. Steem's ability to handle large transaction volumes swiftly can enhance user experience and maintain platform efficiency.

• Community Power:

On Steem, users have a say in how things are run. It's like everyone gets a vote and everyone has a place in this vast system. The decisions about the community and how it should run are made by the moderators in that community, and the best thing is anyone can create these communities and be a moderator if they want. It helps everyone feel involved and makes the platform stronger.

👉 How has the actual adoption and usage of the Steem blockchain by users and applications evolved recently? How might these factors influence the continued growth of the Steem token in a cryptocurrency bull market?

This is a topic we should talk about with so much more data than what I think or know. I believe Steemit has millions of user accounts but how many active users are there is the issue! This sure is a global platform, even Google Trends shows countries like Vietnam, Iran, and Saudi Arabia topping the search list, but I haven’t come across any users in these countries. I have seen a huge user base in South Korea though. So it is very hard to conclude whether users are adopting the platform or not.

^{How Steemit Trends in Google | Data from google trends.}

Lots of users sign up but then ghost after a couple of posts. I believe they realize that it's not the get rich quick scheme they thought it'd be. Even on google trends we can clearly see there's a huge drop on search and visit in recent years compared to 2020 and 2021. So, I'm not totally sold on how much users are really adapting to the platform.

When we talk about the application, I can see relatively good development over the years. However, for newcomers, it is not the most attractive website. I believe the front end could use some designer touch, but for the application, I think it keeps evolving for the best.

Increasing user capacity is utmost importance for any social media platform. When we have billions of users in a single platform investors would be all over it. Just think if Ellon Musk is interested in Steemit and if he tweeted about it what would happen to the STEEM? So the growth of the Steemit and STEEM coin has a huge part to play in its user capacity, improvement of application, and webpage.

👉 In the context of the bull market of cryptocurrencies, how does the Steem token position itself compared to other similar projects? What market trends do you identify as being crucial to the short and long term success of the Steem token?

Well, let’s not hide the cards here. If Steemit wants full authority in this ecosystem, they've got to find a way to attract more users and outshine Hive.blog. 'Cause truth be told, none of the other competitors pose much of a threat to this platform. Currently, Hive ranks at #299 among active cryptocurrencies, while Steem falls behind at #364.

So, how do they bump up that market cap? Simple. In the short or long term, they've got to lure in investors. User adoption will be key for attracting more investors. The more users hopping on the Steem train, the better. It's all about growing those individual communities, bringing in new voices, new ideas, and making sure everyone enjoys this platform while improving the ecosystem.

And then, the next big thing is tech. Blockchain, digital currencies these topics are all tech-related, and we need all the latest and greatest in blockchain tech developers to enhance the platform. That means looking at scalability, speed, and security stuff that'll keep users happy and investors interested.

Last but not least, partnerships. Teaming up with the right projects like TRON can open doors and create new opportunities for Steem. Whether it's collaborating with other projects or joining forces with big-name brands, partnerships can give Steem that extra boost it needs.

Thank you for this interesting contest @crypto-academy. Looking forward to taking on the next week’s challenge. I would like to invite @tenguhatanga, @crisvera & @morgan76 to participate in this contest.

Thank you.

Peace to all 🙏

^{The cover image was created using Midjourney and then edited in Photoshop. All other images are sourced from screenshots.}