Market interpretation

According to data, the price premium of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has just reached its lowest level since April 2019.

Due to record purchases and demand for Bitcoin, Grayscale often made headlines this year, but despite the inflow of funds, the price of Bitcoin did not continue to rise.

Starting in February, the purchase premium of the Grayscale Trust Fund was approximately US$6.50. At the beginning of its creation, the premium was as high as US$40. Historically, this is consistent with Bitcoin's tortuous price movement, and a large premium means that Bitcoin has risen sharply.

Once they are released, bitcoin prices tend to soar as customers reinvest their profits in bitcoin, and bitcoin prices tend to be flat before these events.
The next unlock will take place on February 3, and people should prepare for the continuation of the Bitcoin bull market.

BTC

After Bitcoin rose to the highest level of 38696.38 yesterday, it began to pull back. During the period, the trading volume was not very large, which was a normal performance. At present, there is still no real hammer to stand firmly at the position of 37875, which is the second highest position mentioned before, so it is still not suitable for us to enter the market. We still leave the market with a wait-and-see attitude to stay focused. Do not enter the market lightly, because as long as the market does not have a solid hammer to stand the next high, it means that the trend of the market is not very stable. It may be the next high point here, and it will rise to 38696.38 this time. At the high point, the trading volume is not very large, indicating that there are not many people who continue to buy.

The current premium is 1852, an increase of 100 compared to yesterday’s 1732, and the premium is 4.94% (calculated by dividing the OK futures premium by the spot). From the premium, we can also clearly see this. The daily premium is constantly on the rise, that is, more and more people join the ranks of bullish Bitcoin in the later stage, so we can also infer that more people open long than short in the contract market Number of people.

In short, from a fundamental point of view, most people still prefer Bitcoin to continue to rise, so the number of people who buy bullish is much larger than the number of people who open short, but the current market does not meet our entry standards. So it is not recommended to try. The lower support area is 28800 and the upper resistance area is 37875.

ETH

Ether performed well. Yesterday, the market reached its peak at 1695 and there was a big correction. However, today the market has continued to rebound and is now close to a new high again. It’s just that the current market is not particularly good from the 4-hour MACD, because if the market breaks through the previous high again, the ether will face the threat of 4-hour MACD top divergence, so it’s back to us and repeated a lot. The second stage.

The suggestion is still to try to buy according to our principles. A few days ago, I have recommended that everyone buys from the previous high as the lower support after the market’s real hammer has stabilized. Then the current buying logic remains unchanged, that is The 1475 position is the lower support level to try to buy low. Because the current market is 11% from the support below, the small partners who want to enter the market need to control their positions. The lower support area is 1475, and the upper no resistance area.

BCH

BCH still did not get rid of the fate of being suppressed by the 4-hour 200-period average buying line many times in the early stage. The highest point yesterday rose to 454.87 and was completely suppressed by the 200 line, and then began to fall.

Although the current market has rebounded, it still failed to stand at the 200 line, so our conclusion remains the same. BCH is still in a downward trend. It is not recommended that you try to buy, and the trading volume in the process is average , Which means that not many people pay attention to BCH, and we can only keep our attention off the court and do not enter the market lightly. The lower support area is 369.4 and the upper resistance area is 465.

DOT

After Polkadot rose to the highest level of 21.73 yesterday, there was a relatively large correction, but we can clearly see that there are more people buying from the bottom during the callback process, although the lowest point has fallen below the previous high. However, the actual hammer did not fall below the previous high, so we believe that Polkadot's subsequent rise is still strong.

Yesterday, I also suggested that the small partners try to buy low. The small partners who bought should also have a relatively good return, and the small partners who are still paying attention off the market need to pay attention to it, because after this callback, if the subsequent market is again Break through the previous high, then Polkadot will face the risk of 4-hour MACD single-stack top divergence. We need to be vigilant. If there are no small partners who want to enter the market, we should also after Polkadot eliminates the threat of top divergence. Try again.

The small partners who have entered the market continue to hold the previous high as the lower support level. It is good to continue to hold it. Once the subsequent real hammer falls below the previous high position, stop the loss in time and leave the market. The lower support area is 19.39 and the upper no resistance area.