So many people expected bitcoin's dollar price to jump when the ETFs were approved. (I expected the price to crash)
But, what happened? The SEC mistakenly, (read "got hacked") tweeted out that the ETFs were approved, and the price jumped, and then the SEC said they were hacked, and the price crashed. Then the ETFs were approved the next day, and everyone wondered if that was true, and so bitcoin just slowly went up a little.
Almost everyone expected so many people moving their retirement accounts into bitcoin ETFs that there would be this huge demand for bitcoin, and thus skyrocketing bitcoin prices.
But, here we sit, mostly going sideways.
Boomers' retirement accounts
Vanguard decides to not allow their account holder to invest in any bitcoin ETFs. They allow all kinds of other, much more risky bitcoin derivative investments, but not any of the bitcoin ETFs. Why would they do this?
My guess is that it is boomer thinking. Boomers deciding for boomers, that this new fangled contraption is just not a real investment.
The boomers barely invested in the internet. Most still can't use e-mail well. Are all thumbs when it comes to their phones. And so, they are going to miss out on this evolution in money.
It is a shame, but also it means that a huge flood of investment moneys from retirement accounts (mostly owned by boomers) may not really happen. They will all sit on the sidelines until everyone else is rushing into bitcoin, then they will fomo in.
The younger generations
Do they even have retirement accounts? Do they even have money to invest?
The boomers have the lions' share of retirement account savings. But generation X have some. Will they invest in bitcoin ETFs? Maybe.
The problem is that all the younger generations, unless they are playing the stock market, do not have a brokerage account, and if they want bitcoin, will just buy bitcoin. ETFs are too much hassle. They understand phones and tech. Loading a wallet is so much easier than trying to set up an account with a brokerage house.
So, i am not expecting much ETF action from this group.
Fund managers and swing traders
The people that will really get into bitcoin ETFs are swing traders. With the ETFs they can bet on bitcoin price action without moving their money out of the brokerage account. I expect there will be a lot of this going on in the near future. But i do not know how much this will swing the needle.
The bitcoin ETF is already larger than all commodities except gold, how much more to actually move bitcoin's price?
Where are you fund managers? When are you going to move part of your funds into bitcoin ETFs? Well, probably when the advertising gets done, and the clients say they want it. Which may be a while.
So, this will probably be a slow trickle into the ETF, and then a gush, and then a torrent.
The ETFs have probably not moved the bitcoin price much because all the ETFs have been purchasing their bitcoin long before now. (Yes, that means Jamie Demon lied)
But, the ETFs only have a certain amount, and that will not be enough. And the supply on exchanges is dwindling. And then the halvening!
My best guess is that we will see a big crash in cryptos, sometime before the halving, and then bitcoin will spring right back, and then go way, way up at the halving. It just really depends on how much bitcoin the big guys can buy when the crash the crypto market. How much padding. But it will run out, and then they have to buy when supply is cut in half.
Grayscale's selling off of bitcoin has kept the supply and demand sorta steady, but this will also stop.
So, look for some big gains in bitcoin. But i do not know when. We could see sideways all through summer, and then slowly up. Or we could see a god-candle soon after the halvening.
The banksters are playing with the price of bitcoin. Soon bitcoin will play with the price of banksters.