Hello Fellow Hivers! Its been a while since I posted and shared my thoughts on this platform. Perhaps ECOWAS banter with the Niger Republic has smoked me out of my hole to express my take on the matter.
Am not here to give praise to the Niger regime and support coup d'états in the region. I believe in democracy and can say it affords people the right to express themselves without fear of imprisonment or losing their tongues. Coup makers often tend to have popular legitimacy but usually end up as dictators. They, just like civilians, become corrupt when in power for long. Imagine the extrajudicial killings in Ghana in the 80s and 90s. We as a people must therefore not jump in to support any military coup without assessing the situation thoroughly.
I however do not believe democracy is the ideal system of governance every country must practice or adhere to. Africa must ditch Western democracy and develop its own form that still has the universal values of democracy such as freedom of expression, minority protection, and rule of law among many others.
Now you'll ask yourself what am I driving at if I don't support coups and at the same time calling out ECOWAS not to attack Niger? Kindly stay put, I promise it'll make sense when am done.
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Before you get my drift, you need to understand that one of the most cherished needs of every person is the right to life, food, happiness, clothing, shelter, education, job, sex, and freedom among many others. These forms of needs are very vital to the existence of every human being. The absence of any would mean that a person's life is threatened or their dignity is not uplifted. Thus, human security which encompasses all these, is critical for every country to provide and safeguard for its people. The inability of the State to safeguard human rights and provide jobs for its people means that the people are likely to rebel against the State or fail to recognize the sovereignty or existence of the State.
People who fail to recognize the existence of the State take up arms to rebel against State authority over them. This often stems from minority exclusion from decision-making or the inability of the State to protect its citizens from terror groups. The Niger coup may lack political and legal legitimacy but has popular legitimacy among the Nigerians. Any attempt to invade the country and oust the military junta would be met with fierce resistance among the people they intend to "liberate."
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Scenarios for ECOWAS Invasion
The first scenario for ECOWAS is to strike Niger's Army so overwhelming to the extent that they lost their air capabilities. This would mean that EWCOWAS forces can march to Niamey without much resistance and force the junta into negotiation or kick them out as they intend to. This would in assure short-term victory in Niger and allow for the restoration of constitutional order. In the long term, however, there, going to be bickering between the military and the people of Niger. This would lead to unrest among minority groups and serve as a chance for Jihadists to recruit into their ranks youths looking for alternatives.
The rise of these fanaticized groups may cascade across the sub-region and consume us all, Countries such as Ghana and those in the coastal areas would be their prime target to get more unemployed youths and also send a signal to the West of their existence. This would not mean well for West Africa, particularly its people.
The other worrying thing if ECOWAS is able to restore order is to ask the cost involved and who bears the cost. As it stands now, Member States are in dire economic situations can cannot afford such an escapade. This means that ECOWAS is likely banking its hopes on its so-called Western allies for support in this intervention. The price that would be paid with this gamble is Niger's natural resources
The second scenario is when ECOWAS is not able to win the war quickly and it becomes a protracted war for a long time. This would drain all resources from the Member States but also gives much bargaining power to the West to come to dictates not to just Niger, but member states facing economic challenges due to the war.
This is clearly not a good thing for both Niger and ECOWAS. The best is to resort to diplomacy and not WAR.
I'll be back.......