🏴 Wolves v Everton
🧠 Demarai Gray Over 1.5 Shots
💰 1 unit @ 2.00 (Bet365)
🕵🏻♂️ I like the look of this price, Gray has hit 0 (sub), 2, 2, 1 (sub), 2, 4, 3, 1 (sub), in his last 8 games. I expect him to start the game in behind the striker. Players who have played against wolves who have started in similar positions have hit: 3 shots - Raphinha, 2 shots - McGinn, 4 shots - Elyounoussi, 2 shots - Ndombele, 3 shots - B. Fernandes. Happy to place 1 unit here.
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🇪🇸 Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo
🧠 Brian Mendez - Over 1.5 Shots
💰 1 unit @ 2.20 (Bet365)
🕵🏻♂️ I believe this is slightly overpriced and if he plays the full 90 I think he will get 2+ shots. In his last 11 matches he has had 2, 3, 2, 1 (sub), 1 (sub), 1 (sub), 1 (sub), 1 (sub), 2, 0 (sub), 1 (sub). This is an avg of 2.25 in those games he has played 90 minutes. In his last 3 games he has played the full 90 so more than likely will tonight. Happy to place 1 unit here.
These are probably the most random betting markets I think I've ever seen anybody tip on but if these 2 results are anything to go by, it could be a good one. Have you tracked this for a while?
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Yes, I have been tracking my bets over the past year and it seems to be working well. I will be sharing more previews with time. I was proud of my bet yesterday on the Manchester derby. :)
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That was brave - 4 or more shots from a striker doesn't always come in, let alone a "left back".
I used to do a lot of betting - lots of statistics and betting models with various databases for each sport. Ice Hockey and Tennis were pretty decent for me but I don't have any time to look at it any more (I also need to migrate the code from an old laptop to my new one which is going to be a ball ache).
I reckon there's money to be made analysing referees too. Especially the likes of Mike Dean who hasn't been in the headlines recently.
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I agree there is with referees and if you combine that with card stats for teams. You certainly have an edge. I will keep post previews regularly so users can see my thought process.
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That's one of the databases I'd created and had started analysing. I included referee data as well as each team over the 5 previous matchweeks. I think there was potential in it but I doubt I'll ever have time to look at it again. The changes they introduced this season to make referees more lenient could have changed it anyway!
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