So When Will Steem Reach "Maximum Density" and Start Running?

in hive-167922 •  5 years ago 

Back in another "age" I followed a lot of innovative companies for investment purposes.

Some were "high flyers" that ended up with ridiculous market capitalizations based on absolutely nothing other than a prospectus, a business plan and promises that their innovate products would be "game changers." Often, they'd never deliver... sometimes, they never even sold even a single product, in spite of their billion-dollar market capitalizations.

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Other companies were immensely solid, efficient and successful in bringing their ideas to market, over and over and over... and they were even well managed and profitable... and yet their stocks would remains solidly in the basement for months and even years.

One of the things we learned is that the investing public often tends to be more interested in chasing rumors than investing in reality. If given a choice between putting $100 (let's say) into a slim chance of making $10,000 or putting $100 into a near sure thing that would double their money in a couple of years... thy'd more often than not pick the "slim chance."

Which brings me to the increasingly strange case of Steem.

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We keep seeing new use cases pop up, and more and more of them, even... and services like Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings repeatedly gives Steem top marks, and yet the value of the Steem token remains pretty depressed... compared to so many other blockchain projects that often have absolutely nothing to offer but vague promises in a White Paper.

It seems to me like we are increasingly moving towards some kind of "critical mass" here.

Earlier today, I wrote my 3rd anniversary "cakeday post" here... and observed (among other things) that over the three years I have been here, Bitcoin has increased 1000% in value, while Steem is worth... well, a few fractions of a cent less than when I created my account on January 29th, 2017.

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Then, when I checked the SteemLeo front end, I noticed the announcement by @steem.leo that there is now going to be a "LeoShop" here... yet another use case, this time finally getting into the area of e-commerce!

Once again, another layer gets added to the "value" of the Steem blockchain.

The thing I find somewhat baffling is that we keep adding these new use cases to the blockchain, and each one adds demand for the Steem token... and yet? Supply still seems greater than demand, so the price remains stagnant. But for how long?

And that question is what I am poking at with the words "Maximum Density." If people and projects keep needing the tokens... at some point we surely must end up going "off to the races!" Of course, I don't have a crystal ball, so there's no telling when that will happen...

... it just seems increasingly likely that it will happen.

Thanks for reading!

(This post was created for the SteemLeo front end)

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Created at 20200129 22:10 PST

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I have never used it or anything more than a social site so there is no disappointment here. Anything I make on here is a bonus and I still have fun, so there is that.

I stopped hoping these places would do anything more than open my world a little more.

But, I get what you mean.

Have a great weekend!

!tip

I'm not really too concerned, either. I like it here because I have always been a fan of "social blogging," and that has been what has kept me going here. And I like the community, even if the active part of it is pretty small.

  ·  5 years ago (edited)

I totally agree with you that as the use cases keep piling up, there will be upward pressure on the price. I think it is much safer to be invested in a project that has real utility but whose price is in the toilet relative to competing vaporware. The low price allows for more accumulation, for one thing. I also think that as we didn't go below 12 cents save for a few short-lived dips, I do no think the price of STEEM will ever go below that level. On the contrary, Bitcoin seems to have begun its long march upwards that will end in yet another bubble in the next couple of years. I reckon STEEM will follow suit with rest of the altcoins a bit later. After that it will crash again but never go south of 50 cents again.

Yeah, market cycles are pretty much inevitable... there will be ups and downs. And we may still have some years to go before anyone figures out how to actually assign valuations to blockchain projects...

All driven by the BTC mining reward halvings. And yes, I agree with you on calculating fair values for crypto.

It comes back to the current inflation level; which once SMTs are live is no longer needed as people can reward their projects in their own tokens. So I would like to see inflation reduced at an increased rate.

I suppose the inflation issue would not have been that much of an "issue" if we had actually had solid and ongoing growth in the number of active users... but the way it has gone, anything to reduce the supply of Steem might turn out to be a positive.

Yep; they need a step change in supply.

Once we get back to printing SBD's the supply will halve, but then again we will enter another SBD pump which will only create a hyper inflationary headache when the castle comes tumbling down.

Probably too many underdogs & hipsters still awaiting that the old and bearded baby SMT officially start taking his first steps and babble. :)

Ah, that baby... methinks someone has been "pregnant" for several years with that one...

Haha yeah. Now let's hope this Nadya Octomom Suleman can endure with the octuplets once these see the light after all these years. };)

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