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Is this it? Is Bitcoin finally ready?
In the past I've often given some market analysis about the state of the crypto market, I caught the drop all the way to the bottom, caught the rise because of a good put Stop-loss, and I've been telling people for the past few months that the market isn't ready to reverse... but I'm starting to turn bullish.
Every time I do TA I like to look at a few things, the most important one, in my opinion, is the Weekly MACD, when the weekly MACD turns bullish it signals a high probability that the market reversed and is turning bullish, and guess what... it's almost, ALMOST! Crossing and turning bullish, if it actually closes with a crossover there is a really high probability that the price of Bitcoin is going to run! Run like a bull! Unstoppable, unshakable, unthinkable! Especially since we are this close to the halving!
The halving decreases Bitcoin's inflation by a lot! And decreases the profit of miners by half... The only way for the Bitcoin business to be sustainable after the halving is for the price of Bitcoin to grow, and that happens, in my opinion, mostly because the dump from miners decreases with the halving and people keep selling their shitfiat for Bitcoin, storing their value in Bitcoin! The only true decentralized, immutable, scarce and censorship-resistant asset that the world has.
Now there is one thing I should say, even though we might be very near to that crossover that I've been waiting for months, it hasn't happened yet, and without it happening I would still consider it risky, it would be less risky to wait one or two more weeks for the MACD to turn bullish to buy for the long hold, but of course, even though the probability increases as more time passes so does the probability of missing the train...
Another thing I should mention is that the channel that Bitcoin has been in for months broke to the upside, and this is also a bullish signal! We spent so much time in that channel that breaking it means that the bear selling has decreased enough for the bulls to take over... and with that signal, the bulls can take over and start buying more and more.
The 200 weekly MA which is a really strong support is in the $5100, slowly the MA is climbing, going under it would mean doom, so, in my opinion, the most downside Bitcoin has is $5100, if it goes lower it's really bad for the whole space.
Now for other coins...
STEEM!
STEEM looks amazing in the STEEMUSD pair, it seems to have gotten a really good support and if we stay at these prices for at least 1 month the price will break out of the falling wedge that we've been in since the top and it will have room to grow... Normally breakouts out of falling wedges retrace at least 50%, that would put STEEM at $3.5. Of course this last part is too speculative for me to trade it, the only thing I'm sure is of the first part, if STEEM stays at these prices for a little while longer we are very likely to see STEEM pumping.
STEEM's RSI on the daily is also pretty good, it's been with bullish divergence for a while now.
The only thing that makes me a little afraid of this trade is the fact that the STEEMBTC price looks bottomy but without wanting to go upwards, which makes me doubt the trade, but if we can close a daily candle above the MAs in the next month I would be much more inclined to buy.
EOS
EOS on the EOSUSD pair also looks good, with a MACD crossover on the weekly and the price is above the 100MA and 200MA, if these cross there is also a good probability of pumping a little.
EOS's FA doesn't look good to me, it has some advancements but in the past weeks, we've seen a massive Dapp exodus, with dapps like prospectors and Karma moving away from the mainnet to WAX. The number of transactions currently happening on EOS makes me really want to stay away, there is no way that those transactions are real valuable transactions!
Ethereum
This is one of the ecosystems that I most enjoy in the crypto space, the amount of devs Ethereum has not only in the core of Ethereum but also on all the dapps makes Ethereum a fast-evolving ecosystem, Steemians might not be very aware of the DeFi space that is being built on Ethereum if you aren't aware, search it, insurance, lending, data, streaming, bonds, real estate, etc...etc... Ethereum has a really strong ecosystem being built and Etherians want to reduce the inflation when the move to PoS happens, with PoS the amount of energy spent by miners diminishes so they won't need inflation to support the miners and can thus diminish it, some core devs actually think the amount of Ethereum lost and burned plus the reduced inflation can make Ethereum deflationary, and guess what, Ethereum's TA is also turning bullish!
Ethereum's weekly MACD is almost turning bullish, one, two more weeks at these prices and it turns bullish, and the long bear market trendline is right above us, if we break past it, Ethereum, just like Steem will have room to run. If these two scenarios happen, it would be a scenario that I would feel safe in longing, of course, always with a good stop-loss in place, even with a 99% probability of going upwards there is 1 in 100 cases that the price goes down.
VeChain
This is another ecosystem that I'm very excited about, the amount of business adoption going on VET is increasing daily Wallmart, PriceWaterCopper, Delloite, Givenchy, Louis Vuitton, and it seems that in 2020 they will give businesses more wallets then all of the Bitcoin's wallets combined... around 900k wallets to be more specific and also in 2020 they want to release a euro stable-coin backed by a Central Bank. And the Foundation's CEO is expecting hundreds of millions of transactions during the whole year of 2020.
VET is looking strong in the VETBTC pair, it finally broke through the bear channel it was in and it has since made a whole bull wave of 200% and already retraced to the golden pocket. If the price stays at these levels for a few more days it will break through the falling wedge and can go on another wave upwards. With all of this said, the weekly MACD looks weird since it's turning bearish but at a too low level for my liking, but the daily MACD does look to be crossing, so it's a high risk trade in my opinion.
With all of this said, I don't like to trade in altcoins, I would much prefer to trade daddy BTC because he is still king of the jungle, when he starts running the rest of the animals go into hiding. What I mean by this is that, if Bitcoin starts running, the altcoins might suffer.
Images Free Source - 1, 2,3,4,5,6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27 - Tradingview snapshots too.
Question of the day: Do you see any good charts to swing long? Which one?
Sorry If I haven't been posting much, college is keeping me busy.
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It would be nice if it did!
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Let's wait and see, I'm like 70% bullish at this point, next week if we stay like this 80% and the other week 90%. I truly think this is it, the worst as passed, and normally we get an altseason after we break the ATH, which imho must be around Q2/Q3 of 2020.
Hope everything is good with you meesterboom, I've been busy studying and doing some works, havent posted or commented in any of the Steemians I normally go through :(
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I'm on holiday so haven't been around much for the last two weeks!
I think it's a coming. I'm all bull!!
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