It is evident that the consequences of the pandemic in the global economic sphere are considerable, but Latin America could go through a strong economic recession in 2022, according to the analyzes carried out by recognized financial institutions, the IMF, ECLAC, among others.
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After two years of pandemic and a global economic recession, during the month of December several financial institutions and global organizations showed the world their prediction relationships with what is avenue for 2022.
Despite the results obtained by 2020, which were quite discouraging including for large world economies, analyzes were mostly showed where a GDP growth of many countries were evidenced, because the comparison was based on relation to the data obtained in the year 2020 with those of the year 2021.
That is why this growth or recovery of the economy can not be considered as completely true, because the data of the year 2020 were clearly affected by the pandemic and restrictions linked to this, which affected the great majority of the countries of the world exceptionally.
In view of the above, in order to obtain a more realistic projection for 2022 it is advisable to take into consideration in addition to GDP, other economic data offered by international organizations, institutions and / or agencies specialized in the subject as they are: the index Inflationary, economic growth and solvency or credit situation, among others.
Despite the results obtained by 2020, which were quite discouraging including for large world economies, analyzes were mostly showed where a GDP growth of many countries were evidenced, because the comparison was based on relation to the data obtained in the year 2020 with those of the year 2021.
That is why this growth or recovery of the economy can not be considered as completely true, because the data of the year 2020 were clearly affected by the pandemic and restrictions linked to this, which affected the great majority of the countries of the world exceptionally.
In view of the above, in order to obtain a more realistic projection for 2022 it is advisable to take into consideration in addition to GDP, other economic data offered by international organizations, institutions and / or agencies specialized in the subject as they are: the index Inflationary, economic growth and solvency or credit situation, among others.
In this regard, the International Monetary Fund showed in appendix 1 of its report issued in October 2021: economic outlook "Las Americas", a table prepared by the IMF technical personnel with data from the Weo report, where they are considered in each column The following indicators: Growth of real PBI (1), inflation (2) and the balance of the external current account (3)
Appendix Table 1. Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators. Source
According to these estimates, for the year 2022, all the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, including the large economies such as the United States and Canada, will suffer a decrease in GDP that is quite evident in relation to the projections at the end of 202.
However, in this group the United States leads in North America with 5.2%, followed by Canada 4.9% and Mexico 4.0%.
In South America, only Peru with 4.6% and Bolivia with 4.0% are estimated to have the highest% of GDP for 2022; and finally, in relation to Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic, these last two countries lead this group with 5.5% and 5.0% respectively, followed by Guatemala 4.5% and Honduras with 4.4%.
However, in this group the United States leads in North America with 5.2%, followed by Canada 4.9% and Mexico 4.0%.
In South America, only Peru with 4.6% and Bolivia with 4.0% are estimated to have the highest% of GDP for 2022; and finally, in relation to Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic, these last two countries lead this group with 5.5% and 5.0% respectively, followed by Guatemala 4.5% and Honduras with 4.4%.
El Fondo Monetario Internacional sostiene que para el 2022 el crecimiento anual será de 4,9%, estimandose que la tasa de pobreza pueda llegar al 30%.
Interannual inflation. Source
In relation to inflation, according to the International Monetary Fund it projects that the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean can reach very high inflation rates of two digits by 2022, as is the case of Cuba with 70%, followed by Argentina with 51.2 % and Brazil 10.4%.
This is the consequence of erroneous economic policies as well as a very unstable internal political climate that has the consequences of affecting the essential economic indicators of the economy of each country, causing higher rates of poverty, reduced purchasing power and high rates of unemployment and insecurity.
On the other hand, among the policies established in Argentina at the beginning of 2022, was the approval of the average increase of 30% of services such as electricity, water, internet, telephone, gas and urban cleaning; as well as the 45% increase in toll rates, among others.
Finally, it is important to highlight that the economic projections presented for the year that begins must be considered as a reference in order to make adjustments and look for alternatives that help overcome this crack that the pandemic has left us and that even the world is trying to overcome.
This is the consequence of erroneous economic policies as well as a very unstable internal political climate that has the consequences of affecting the essential economic indicators of the economy of each country, causing higher rates of poverty, reduced purchasing power and high rates of unemployment and insecurity.
On the other hand, among the policies established in Argentina at the beginning of 2022, was the approval of the average increase of 30% of services such as electricity, water, internet, telephone, gas and urban cleaning; as well as the 45% increase in toll rates, among others.
Finally, it is important to highlight that the economic projections presented for the year that begins must be considered as a reference in order to make adjustments and look for alternatives that help overcome this crack that the pandemic has left us and that even the world is trying to overcome.
Referential sources
Greetings dear teacher @janetyanez, the information you share with us is of great interest to our countries, it would affect even our already battered economies, inflation every day drowns economies and poverty increases considerably.
See you later, have a great weekend.
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Hi @amestyj
Thank you for reading my post and your lovely comment.
Have a great day!
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Hello @janettyanez, happy new year..!
I believe that the current pandemic has overloaded health services in all countries, it is a situation for which no one was really prepared, and the same pandemic significantly increased unemployment, to which we must consider that consequently the rates have also increased. poverty in many countries. This leads me to think that the continuity of the pandemic or the appearance of new viruses in the future are factors that must be considered in the economic planning of each country.
I really liked this post because it is a topic that I do not find frequently.
See you.
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Hi @tocho2, Happy new year!
Certainly, the consequences of the pandemic affected the economies of many countries and continues to do so.
Cheers
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