Bitcoin gave every investor a nice pop yesterday, rising to $49k. I do not think that Bitcoin is fully out of the woods yet but the ongoing correction has been enough to bring back negativity in the crypto media outlets.
Kraken's CEO does not CEO Bitcoin hitting $100k this year. I guess "better late than never" strategy is best to escape trolls on social media. He also feels that there is a possibility that this ongoing correction is the onset of "crypto winter". $100k looks impossible this year for sure but what about a parabolic run-up prior to crypto winter? I think he is wrong about any extended bear market for crypto. We haven't yet seen intense greed drive mania hitting the crypto markets as we did in 2017. I think a bear market is still far far away.
Death Cross is also back. You might be looking at the chart and wondering how. 50 DMA is still quite far away from 200 DMA. Well, one can use any MA, and once the shorter MA is crossing the longer MA from the top, then that is a death cross. No matter which MA, this indicator is useless AF!
Back to the chart. Bitcoin did manage to break out of descending channel with decent (not confidence-inspiring!) volume. I think, first, more volume is needed if this pop continues and I expect volume to remain thin for the rest of this year. Second, a retest of the channel as support is needed to confirm this break.
Another similarity that I saw on the charts has been highlighted using blue and red. During the last correction that happened in September, Bitcoin formed a second bearish flag before its run-up. A very similar pattern this time around as well. The second one is highlighted in red. History does not necessarily repeat itself but let's say this similarity turns out to be a happy coincidence.
RSI too has broken the downward momentum and remains close to oversold territory. This is in line with the correction (bear flag) and again, I think a retest of the descending channel will take RSI to 30. An oversold RSI, led by a higher volume-driven pop will confirm that Bitcoin is out of the danger zone. For now, things are very neutral for me, and waiting for a clearer signal is the way to go forward for me.
Dear @karamyog
At the end of the year many people and institutions are cashing out (tax purposed) their crypto. And I kind of believe that most of them already are done with that process. After all, there are only few days left and christmas are coming. So people will be busy with other things.
That could reduce selling pressure, which has been obviously quite present.
Also christmas time is usually a time, when people spent more time online. Watching youtubers. And pumping themselfs up with those youtubers optimism and energy. So I would expect beginning of the year to be already much better than recent 2-3 weeks. Accumulation phase lasted already quite a while, so perhaps it's time for another price break-out?
As long as money printing will last - capital will be running into assets. And BTC is the most superior and popular asset. So I would be shocked if this particular asset would not do well.
And you had a good point. We didn't even see any sort of hype and mania yet.
ps.
I'm sure that just few weeks ago, you've expected price of BTC to be at very different levels by end of the year. Im pretty sure you predicted some push upward and perhaps even reaching new all time high.
I was definetly one of those people who expected that. All the way until that recent flash-crash and massive liquidations which followed.
Stay safe and healthy. And ... merry christmas! :)
Yours, Piotr
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