烂尾楼，烂尾娃——货币效应的幻觉破灭

现在经济形势普遍不好，但这并不是什么坏事情。之前的经济繁荣，很大程度上只是房地产市场金融化带来的货币效应的结果。央行和各大商业银行凭空创造出来的大量货币，通过政府投资和房屋贷款，这些新增货币供应主要进入房地产行业，改变了房地产市场的供求关系，从而导致房价不断上涨。

这一次的房地产危机，被人们真正意识到，似乎是从恒大出现的大量烂尾楼开始的。这里就有一个误解，就是认为恒大之所以会出现违约和遍地烂尾楼，是因为国家收紧了对房地产的信贷政策，划下了三条红线，让恒大无法再随心所欲地获得银行的贷款，也就是不能再获得新增的货币。仿佛只要这些货币能够源源不断地供给给恒大，它就能够一直坚挺下去。但事实上，所有的货币，不管是美元、人民币还是英镑，都是中央银行及其关联的商业银行凭空创造出来的。货币本身并没有任何的价值，所以也不会有魔法。

想用源源不断地供应货币来完成所有烂尾楼的想法是幼稚的。遍地烂尾楼的真正原因，是没有真实的资源储备来完成这么多的住宅建设。即便继续供给恒大源源不断的贷款，让他把社会上所有可用的资源都吸干，也不可能完成所有烂尾楼。那样的话，既不能维持房地产的这种虚假繁荣，反而会让其他的行业和很多普通人的生活陷入更加贫困的境地。

所以说，政府某种意义上设定三条红线，刺破房地产的泡沫，其实是非常正确的。当然，他们也许只是想降低风险，毕竟房地产和地方财政也是息息相关的，让房地产市场进入完全的萧条，影响到自己的钱袋子，这在他们制定政策时可能也并没有考虑到。这里说这件事情，只是想说明，真实储蓄为基础的投资和建设，必定是建立在实际储蓄之上的，而由此造成的经济调整，其实是在恢复正常的经济结构，并不是什么坏事。

当然，这次经济调整影响的是方方面面，所以烂尾的概念也从楼市扩展到了其他领域。最近这几天，网上出现了一个较火的词——「烂尾娃」。就是由于经济形势的原因，很多企业都撑不下去了，出现了降薪和裁员的浪潮。也有一些过去高收入的行业，在经济景气的时候，往往由于工作压力大、闲暇时间少，将大量的收入投入到对子女的培养上面，造成了子女培养这一领域的高度内卷。各种补习班和特长培训的花费，甚至超出了普通人的想象范围。过去一般人想到的是学钢琴之类的，而现在，马术、高尔夫球、击剑等看上去非常高端贵族的项目，也进入了人们的视野。当然，这花费也是非常高的。

但是，现在遇到降薪裁员的浪潮，自然也就无法再继续负担这些昂贵的培训项目，只能选择取消。而孩子连一个像样的基础都还没打好，就已经成为了「烂尾娃」。这个称呼，非常贴切地描述了这种现象，就像受到货币供应假象影响的房地产公司一样，盲目地建起楼房项目，没有考虑到市场的实际需求和实际的资源储备状况，一窝蜂地内卷到子女的培养中，结果造成了相似的结果。

---

The economy is generally bad right now, but that's not a bad thing. Much of the previous boom was simply the result of the monetary effects of the financialisation of the housing market. A large amount of money created out of thin air by the central bank and major commercial banks, through government investment and housing loans, these new money supply mainly into the real estate industry, changing the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, resulting in rising housing prices.

This time the real estate crisis, is really realized by people, seems to be from Evergrande appeared a large number of rotten buildings started. There is a misunderstanding here that the reason why Evergrande defaults and rotten buildings everywhere is because the state has tightened its credit policy on real estate and drawn three red lines, so that Evergrande can no longer obtain bank loans at will, that is, it can no longer obtain new money. It seems that as long as these currencies can be continuously supplied to Evergrande, it can continue to be strong. But in fact, all currencies, whether the dollar, the yuan or the pound, are created out of thin air by central banks and their associated commercial banks. Money itself has no value, so there is no magic.

The idea of a constant supply of money to complete all the rotten buildings is naive. The real reason why there are so many unfinished buildings is that there is no real resource reserve to complete so many residential construction. Even if Evergrande continues to supply a steady stream of loans, so that he can drain all available resources in society, it is impossible to complete all the rotten buildings. In that case, we will not be able to sustain this false boom in real estate, but will make other industries and the lives of many ordinary people even more impoverished.

Therefore, in a sense, the Government is right to set three red lines to puncture the real estate bubble. Of course, they may just want to reduce the risk, after all, the real estate and local finances are also closely related, let the real estate market into a complete depression, affecting their own pocketbooks, which may not be considered when they make policy. I only want to explain that investment and construction based on real savings must be based on real savings, and the resulting economic adjustment is actually restoring the normal economic structure, which is not a bad thing.

Of course, this economic adjustment affects all aspects, so the concept of the tail has also expanded from the property market to other areas. In recent days, there has been a popular word on the Internet - "rotten tail baby". Because of the economic situation, many companies are not able to survive, and there are waves of wage cuts and layoffs. There are also some high-income industries in the past, in the economic boom, often due to work pressure, less leisure time, a large amount of income into the training of children, resulting in a high degree of child training in this field. The cost of various private institutes and specialized training is beyond the imagination of ordinary people. In the past, people generally thought of learning the piano and so on, but now, equestrian, golf, fencing and other seemingly very high-end aristocratic projects have also entered people's vision. Of course, this is also very expensive.

However, now faced with the wave of salary cuts and layoffs, naturally, it is no longer able to afford these expensive training programs, and can only choose to cancel. And the child even a decent foundation has not played well, has become a "rotten tail baby." This name, very aptly describes this phenomenon, just like the real estate companies affected by the illusion of money supply, blindly build housing projects, without considering the actual demand of the market and the actual resource reserves, and rush to involve in the upbringing of children, resulting in similar results.