当前房市真的见底了吗？

互联网视频内容偏好分析

在日常的互联网使用中，我主要关注的是财经类、历史类和科普类的视频节目。特别是财经类内容，因为当前房地产业的调整对整个经济社会的影响深远，几乎每个人的生活都受到波及。这种关注不仅仅是对经济动态的兴趣，更是一种对未来生活质量和经济稳定的关注。

财经博主观点辨析

然而，看了大量的财经博主和UP主的视频后，我发现其中许多观点其实并不准确，甚至存在误导成分。虽然这些博主有时提供了一些有用的信息，但很多时候，他们的解读并不严谨，甚至偏离事实。这种误导可能会影响观众的投资决策和对经济形势的判断。

黄奇帆的房地产市场观点

最近一个非常火的话题是前重庆市长黄奇帆在一次商业会议上的讲话。他表达了对当前房地产市场和经济的看法。黄奇帆曾是重庆市委书记的重要助手，并有可能成为总理，但由于政治斗争的失败，最终没有被重用。然而，他凭借“懂经济官员”的名声，四处走穴，依然活跃在各大商业会议上。这次，他的观点相对接地气，他认为对于刚需来说，从现在起的一年内是买房的最佳时期，但房价大涨是不可能的。他还提到，政策刺破房地产泡沫，让大家认识到房价不可能永远上涨，是中国经济的福报之类匪夷所思的歌功颂德的话。这些言论似乎传递了房地产价格即将触底的信号。

黄奇帆观点的现实解读

然而，黄奇帆的这番话其实有些模棱两可，和算命先生的语言没有太大区别，不管后事如何发展，这些话都可以自圆其说。首先，他没有明确说房价会在一年内止跌。其次，他说的是刚需现在是买房的最好时机，这其实是一个正确的废话。按照奥地利经济学派的主观效用价值排序来分析，刚需的定义，就是住房需求是排一位的，排在价格前面。否则就不叫刚需。所以任何时候都是刚需买房的最佳时机。

房价与租金比值推理的误区

与此同时，网上还有一种观点认为，随着房价的下跌，房价和租金的比值已经接近与银行存款利率持平，因此房价已经跌到了合理区间，很快会止跌。这种推理同样存在问题。
流动性和风险的比较

首先，房产现在的流动性很低，变现困难，这和银行存款的随时支取特性完全不同。其次，尽管有通货膨胀的影响，但存款本金数额是有保证的，而房产一旦入手，在当前市场行情下，再出售时几乎一定会损失本金。

房租和存款利率的比较误区

此外，银行存款利率在定存确定后不会更改，而房租是由市场决定的。在目前就业形势不佳、收入下降的大环境下，房租下跌的可能性很大。因此，用房价和租金比值来判断房价已经见底是不严谨的。

总结与深刻思考

综上所述，当前的房地产市场充满了复杂性和不确定性。无论是黄奇帆的言论还是网上流传的观点，都需要我们以批判的眼光去看待。在做出购房决策时，不仅要考虑市场的动态，还要结合自身的实际需求和经济状况。对信息的甄别和理性的分析是我们应对复杂经济环境的必要手段。未来的房价走势如何，无人能断言，但我们可以通过保持清醒的头脑和合理的规划，尽量减少可能的风险。

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Internet video content preference analysis

​In the daily use of the Internet, I mainly pay attention to the video programs of finance, history and science. Especially the financial and economic content, because the current adjustment of the real estate industry has a far-reaching impact on the entire economy and society, and almost everyone's life has been affected. This concern is not only an interest in economic dynamics, but also a concern for future quality of life and economic stability.

Financial Bo subjective point analysis

​However, after watching a large number of financial bloggers and UP bloggers' videos, I found that many of them are inaccurate and even misleading. While these bloggers sometimes provide some useful information, many times their interpretation is not rigorous or even far from the facts. This misdirection may affect the audience's investment decisions and judgment of the economic situation.
Huang Qifan's real estate market view
​A recent hot topic was a speech made by Huang Qifan, the former mayor of Chongqing, at a business conference. He expressed his views on the current real estate market and economy. Huang Qifan was a key aide to Chongqing's Communist Party secretary and a potential premier, but was passed over due to failed political struggles. However, with his reputation as an "economic official", he has been active in various business conferences. This time, his view is relatively grounded, he believes that a year from now is the best time for people to buy a house, but a surge in house prices is impossible. He also mentioned the policy of pricking the real estate bubble and making people realize that housing prices can't rise forever, such as the bizarre praise of the Chinese economy is a blessing. These comments seem to signal that property prices are about to bottom out.
The realistic interpretation of Huang Qifan's viewpoint
​However, Huang Qifan's words are somewhat ambiguous, and the language of fortune tellers is not much different. First, he did not explicitly say that house prices would stop falling within a year. Second, he said that now is the best time to buy a house, which is actually a correct nonsense. According to the analysis of the subjective utility value ranking of the Austrian school of economics, the definition of just need is that the housing demand is ranked first, in front of the price. Otherwise, it's not called just need. So any time is the best time to buy a house.

Misunderstanding of price to rent ratio reasoning

​At the same time, there is also a view on the Internet that with the decline in housing prices, the ratio of housing prices to rents has been close to the same as the bank deposit rate, so housing prices have fallen to a reasonable range and will soon stop falling. There are also problems with this reasoning.
Liquidity and risk comparison
​First of all, the liquidity of real estate is very low and difficult to liquidate, which is completely different from the anytime withdrawal characteristics of bank deposits. Second, despite the impact of inflation, the principal amount of the deposit is guaranteed, and once the property is bought, it will almost certainly lose the principal when it is sold in the current market.

The misunderstanding between rent and deposit interest rate

​In addition, the bank deposit interest rate does not change after the fixed deposit is determined, while the rent is determined by the market. In the current climate of poor employment and falling incomes, the potential for rents to fall is high. Therefore, using the ratio of house prices to rents to judge that house prices have bottomed out is not rigorous.
Summary and deep thinking
​To sum up, the current real estate market is full of complexity and uncertainty. Whether it is Huang Qifan's remarks or the opinions circulating on the Internet, we need to look at it with a critical eye. When making a purchase decision, we should not only consider the dynamics of the market, but also combine their actual needs and economic conditions. Screening and rational analysis of information are necessary means for us to cope with complex economic environment. No one can say what the future trend of house prices will be, but we can minimize the possible risks by keeping a clear head and reasonable planning.