民用大坝又一次毁于战火，始作俑者扑朔迷离

俄乌战场又发生了一场战争悲剧,第聂伯河上的新卡霍夫卡大坝被毁了。引发了下游大洪水。而事情发生后,交战双方都互相指责是对方炸毁了大坝。一时间,真相难辨。因为在二战结束后的国际公约中明文规定,战争双方不得攻击,水坝,核电站这类关键民用设施。所以,如果确定是谁炸掉了新卡霍夫夫卡上的水坝,就等于犯下了违反国际法的战争罪。

从利益来看,俄罗斯炸掉水坝对自己几乎没有任何好处。一来,水坝背后的水库是要为俄国控制的克里米亚提供淡水供给的。二来,俄罗斯控制的扎波罗热核电站也要从新卡夫夫卡水库提取冷却水,大坝被炸后水位大幅下降,核电站取水也会变得很困难。核电站冷却水供应不上是会引发事故的。福岛核电站就是冷却水系统在地震中受损而爆炸的。就相当于把这里变成了俄军手上的一个定时炸弹。第三,放水之后可以冲毁对岸俄军的防御阵地,并且使赫尔松地区变得泥泞。除了造成水攻的效果之外,还可以阻止赫尔松地区的俄军装备向乌克兰反攻行动的主攻方向扎波罗热调动,减轻主攻方向上的进攻压力。第四,阻止乌军渡河反攻。其实第聂伯河水面宽阔,乌军渡河反攻的难度已经足够大了,俄罗斯完全没有必要通过炸毁大坝的方式。在赫尔松地区没有发生大的战斗的情况下,就炸毁水坝似乎完全不合乎逻辑。

从乌克兰方面的表现来看,他们第一时间就出来指责是俄罗斯炸毁的大坝。第二天,泽连斯基就跑到赫尔松去视察灾区。这些行动再配上西方主流媒体的大幅报道,无疑给人们产生了先入为主的印象。虽然这是信息战的手段,但从某种意义上也可以理解为心虚的表现。要不然,这应该第一时间提出是俄方炸毁大坝的证据,而不是诉诸于扮演受害者和悲情表演。而且从战争开打一年来的表现来看,乌克兰方面多次使用过炸毁水利设施,制造洪水,实现军事目的的行为。比较搞笑的是,泽连斯基还端出球长的架子指责联合国对大坝被攻击不发声。不过,这种态度其实也很说明问题。一方面,像联合国这样的组织已经基本上成了摆设了。它既没有阻止美国入侵伊拉克,也没能阻止俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。而如今面对攻击水坝这样明目张胆违反国际法的战争罪行,也只能装聋作哑。另一方面也是,大部分人对乌克兰的宣传也是将信将疑了。这种改变对乌克兰政府想要继续争取国际援助,把战争打下去的想法将变得很难实现了。其实这开战一年来,基辅政权中已经形成了一批围绕着依靠战争和国际援助发财的利益集团。他们这些人是不会轻易想让战争停下来的。而泽连斯基的政治生命更是与这场战争息息相关。如果没有他当初坚守基辅的决定,这场战争也许早就结束了。但是如果他不能领导乌克兰取得战争的胜利,那么他就会从坚持抵抗的民族英雄变成延长战争，给国家和人民带来痛苦的罪人。停战之时就是泽连斯基下台之日。

Please include punctuation when transcribing. Please include punctuation when transcribing. Please include punctuation when transcribing. Please include punctuation when transcribing. After the incident, both sides in the small war accused each other of blowing up the dam. For a time, the truth was hard to discern. Because it is clearly stipulated in the international conventions after the end of World War II that both parties to the war must not attack key civilian facilities such as dams and nuclear power plants. Therefore, if it is determined who blew up the dam on Novokafka, it would be tantamount to committing a war crime in violation of international law. Therefore, if it is determined who blew up the dam on Novokafka, it would be tantamount to committing a war crime in violation of international law. Therefore, if it is determined who blew up the dam on Novokafka, it would be tantamount to committing a war crime in violation of international law. From the perspective of interests, Russia has almost no benefit to itself by blowing up the dam. For one thing, the reservoir of the dam is to provide fresh water for Russia-controlled Crimea. For one thing, the reservoir of the dam is to provide fresh water for Russia-controlled Crimea. Second, the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant controlled by Russia also draws cooling water from the Novokavka Reservoir. After the dam was bombed, the water level dropped sharply, making it difficult for the nuclear power plant to obtain water. The famous Fukushima nuclear power plant accident occurred because the cooling system that supplied water to the reactor after the earthquake was damaged. The difficulty in getting water for the nuclear power plant is equivalent to turning this place into a time bomb in the hands of the Russian army. Third, after the water is released, it can rush back to the defensive position of the Russian army on the other side, and make the Kherson area off the ground. In addition to the effect of water supply, it can also prevent the Russian military equipment in the Kherson area from being transferred to Zaporozhye, the main attack direction of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and reduce the offensive pressure on the main attack direction. The only reason why the Russian army blew up the dam was to prevent the Ukrainian army from entering the dam from the Kherson area. Fourth, counterattack by crossing the river. In fact, the water surface of the Bohe River is wide, and it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to cross the river to counterattack. There is no need for Russia to blow up the dam, and the main direction of attack is Zaporozhye. It seems totally illogical to blow up the dam in the absence of major fighting in the Kherson region. Judging from Ukraine's performance, the Zhejiang driver immediately came out and accused Russia of blowing up the dam, saying that Russia was a terrorist and would not give up an inch of land to Russia. Because they just destroy. The next day, he went to Kherson to inspect the disaster area. These actions, coupled with the large-scale reports of Western mainstream media, undoubtedly gave people a preconceived impression. Although this is a means of information warfare, it can also be understood as an expression of guilty conscience in a sense. Otherwise, this should be the first evidence that Russia blew up the dam, instead of resorting to the tragedy of the victims, resorting to playing victims and tragic performances. Because this is the classic logical fallacy that manipulating others and humans are prone to make, is to use emotions instead of relying on reason. Moreover, judging from the performance of the war in the past year, the Ukrainian side has repeatedly used acts of blowing up water conservancy facilities, creating floods, and achieving military purposes. This was done during the defense of Kiev, the Battle of Beidon and the Battle of Bakhmut. What's more funny is that Zelensky also used the air of the chief to accuse the United Nations of not speaking out about the attack on the dam, and other international organizations for not speaking out about the serious incident of the attack on the dam. However, this attitude is actually very revealing. On the one hand, an organization like the United Nations has basically become a decoration, just like the League of Nations before World War II. It prevented neither the US from invading Iraq nor Russia from invading Ukraine. But now, in the face of war crimes such as attacking dams, which blatantly violate international law, they can only pretend to be deaf and dumb. Because international organizations can only be paralyzed is one reason. On the other hand, most people are skeptical about Ukraine's propaganda. This shift in attitude seems subtle. This will make it difficult for the Ukrainian government to continue to seek international aid and fight the war. In fact, in the past year since the war started, a group of interest groups have formed in the Kiev regime that revolves around relying on war and international aid to make a fortune. These people will not easily stop the war. And Zelensky's political life is closely related to this war. Had it not been for his decision to stick to Kiev, the war might have ended long ago. But if he can't lead Ukraine to victory in the war, then he will turn from a national hero who persists in resistance to a sinner who prolongs the war and brings suffering to the country and the people.