美联储认怂，降息还在桌上。比特币牛市有望继续

昨天说到真正影响比特币行情的不是K线、均线这些交易图表上的表象。一个非常重要的原因。应该是美联储的货币政策对宏观经济造成的影响。而这一次比特币价格因为减半。达到77,000美元的新高之后，一直踌躇不前。五一假期以来还出现了大幅的下跌。这其中的一个重要原因就是，本来大家预期中的美联储降息，可能因为糟糕的通胀数据给泡汤了。不过昨天也说了。通货膨胀是所有法币的的宿命，不管降息还是加息的都不会改变这条最终的命运，而黄金、比特币这类资产可是对抗通胀最有力的手段。所以长期来看，通胀上升反而是利好。所以比特币的这轮牛市。还没有结束。

昨天帖子刚发完，今天就看到了。有关于美联储政策的新消息了。内容是美联储的主席鲍威尔召开的记者发布会，从他的一些讲话和表态来看。明显是在安抚市场，语气软化了很多。降息还是有戏的。他讲话的内容大意就是。虽然通胀有上升的趋势。但是降息这件事还是有的谈的，因为美联储要更平衡地根据就业和通胀两个指标来作出决定。

其实这些都是意料之中的，降息是势在必行的事情。就看美联储如何给自己找台阶下了。虽然美联储作为美国的中央银行，它的制度设计从表面上看非常的具有独立性。甚至都不是政府机构，而是私营机构，由股东组成。但它的主要人事任命——美联储主席是由美国总统来发出，美联储的利润有很大一部分也是要上缴美国财政部的，所以它本质上就是政府机构的延伸。

而美国政府现在的国债余额是惊人的300,000亿美元，而美国现在的利率高达5%。也就是说光支付国债的利息。美国政府每年都要付出1.5万亿美元。这个负担对美国政府来说是相当难以承受的。也会造成美国的国债，以更快的速度滚雪球。作为政府部门延伸的美联储。这个时候必须为政府的利益着想。尽快找台阶，把利率降下来。没有台阶，创造台阶也要降，这不现在说了降息不仅仅是参考通胀水平。

另一方面。美国股市也是每届总统的经济成绩表。而股市也是更喜欢低利率的环境才能不断的上涨。而今年又是美国的大选年。官僚机构的一个特点就是长官可以换，下面做事的官僚基本上就像铁打的营盘一样。官僚的特点就是尊从命令，谁在中央支持谁。所以如果维持高利率环境，导致股市大跌。显然对现任总统拜登的竞选连任会造成非常大的负面影响。所以从宏观经济、宏观政策来看，比特币继续上涨的条件并没有发生变化。现在的回调是一次非常不错的上车机会。

当然以上都只是个人看法，据此投资不承担任何的责任的。还是要投资者自行判断。

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Yesterday, we mentioned that what truly impacts the Bitcoin market trend is not the appearance on trading charts, such as candlestick charts and moving averages. A significant reason is the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on the macroeconomy. This time, after Bitcoin's price reached a new high of $77,000 due to the halving event, it has stagnated. Since the May Day holiday, there has been a significant decline. One major reason for this is that the expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut might have been jeopardized by poor inflation data.However, as mentioned yesterday, inflation is the destined plight of all fiat currencies, and neither lowering nor raising interest rates can alter this ultimate fate. In contrast, assets like gold and Bitcoin are the most effective tools to combat inflation. Therefore, in the long run, increasing inflation is actually bullish. Consequently, Bitcoin's current bull run is far from over.

Just as I finished posting yesterday, I came across new information about the Federal Reserve's policy today. It concerned a press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. From his remarks and statements, it appears that...It’s clearly reassuring the market, and the tone is much softer. A rate cut is very much back on the table. That’s the essence of what he said. Yes, inflation seems to be ticking up, but there is still room for a rate cut, because the Fed says it is committed to a balanced assessment of both employment and inflation.

In truth, all of this was widely anticipated, and a rate cut seems inevitable. The question is how the Fed will finesse its way there. Despite its nominal independence, the Federal Reserve, as the US central bank, operates within a political system.It is not even a government agency, but a private institution, owned by shareholders. Still, key appointments to its board, such as that of its chair, are made by the US president, and a large portion of its profits are remitted to the US Treasury, making it essentially an extension of the government.This is a heavy burden for the US government, one that would also accelerate the snowballing of its debt. With the Federal Reserve, an extension of the federal government, it is essential that it looks out for the government’s interests and acts swiftly to cut interest rates. If there is no ladder, it must create one to descent; after all, it is now saying that rate cuts are not just about inflation.

On the other hand, the US stock market is also a barometer of each president’s economic performance, and one that tends to favor lower interest rates to support its continued climbs.And this year is also a presidential election year in the US. One characteristic of the bureaucracy is that while the bosses at the top may change, the career bureaucrats below them are practically immovable. Bureaucrats follow orders and back whoever is in power in the center. So if high interest rates were to cause a significant stock market downturn, it would exert substantial negative pressure on President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election. Looking at macroeconomics and macro policies, the conditions for continued Bitcoin appreciation have not changed. This retracement is actually an excellent opportunity to get in on the action.Of course, all of the above are merely personal opinions, and I will not assume any responsibility for any investments made based on them. It's still essential for investors to make their own judgments.