俄乌战争新动向：俄军重兵再袭哈尔科夫，意欲何为？

俄乌战争，最近又出现了比较大的变化。自从去年夏天开始的大反攻结束之后，双方就像回合制游戏一样，乌军转入防守，俄军转入进攻。但俄军的主要进攻方向则放在南线和东线，也就是顿涅茨克州的地区。而乌军在这个地区是倾尽全力。从2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚，并煽动东乌二州“独立”以来，乌军就在顿涅茨克境内以违约的标准构筑了大量的防御工事，形成了一条以斯拉维扬斯克、阿夫迪夫卡和克拉玛托尔斯克为核心的堡垒带。按照常理来说，用兵应该出奇制胜，俄军这种专门往堡垒带上冲的打法，颇有些像灭太平天国时曾国藩所用的“结硬寨，打呆仗”的功法。

不过，凭借自身在炮弹上的火力优势和真正改变了战局形势的滑翔制导炸弹的使用，这种炸弹可以让俄军飞机在乌军防空导弹的射程之外，安全的投放炸弹。虽然这些炸弹是对美国JDAM炸弹的粗糙仿制，在精确度上肯定无法与西方武器相提并论，但是1.5吨的装药和庞大的数量，完全抵消了西方武器的精度优势，而廉价的俄制炮兵武器在经济上、精度上的优势，成为了改变战场游戏规则的改变者。而乌军苦心经营十四年的堡垒城市，像马林卡、阿夫迪夫卡则将继陷落。

在南部和东部战线发动猛攻的同时，俄军在北部战线也有一些动作。比如像在2022年，哈尔科夫大反攻时丢失的库皮扬斯克、伊久姆，俄军都进军了，但最终这些都被废止为牵制行动。因为乌军指挥部无法将这里的部队调往东线和南线增援。

不过，从上周六开始，俄军再度开启了对哈尔科夫州的入侵。这一次，与2022年开战时，派出庞大装甲部队全速突进，穿插不同，俄军是在进行了充分的炮火和轰炸准备之后，派出了以步兵为主的单位，施行步步为营式的进攻。 关于这次进攻行动的规模，虽然远远超过今天，是佯攻用的，规模达到了5万人，但是要想夺取乌克兰的第二大城市哈尔科夫似乎是远远不足的。

所以关于这次第二次哈尔科夫攻势，网上的判断有三种：一种是直接攻占哈尔科夫；第二种则是碰瓷缓冲区。因为一年以来，一旦乌克兰军队的前线吃紧，那么就会派出主打着“自由俄罗斯军团”旗号的小股部队进入俄罗斯的别尔哥罗德州进行骚扰活动。所以此战的目的就是要建立缓冲区，保护俄罗斯本土；第三个可能就是之前已经部署到白俄罗斯的俄军部队，空西夹击已经保持这样，和以西的陆军大部队。战争打了两年以来，双方还没有打出一场大战，那种规模的会战。所以如果这一次行动，如果俄军拿下伊久姆，这场战争可能会……所以如果打了两年以后。

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俄布战争，最近又出现了比较大的变化。自从去年夏天开始的大波罗热带反攻之后结束之后，双方就像回合治眼一样，乌军转入防守法洛德军转入进攻，嗯，但俄军的主要进攻方向则放在南线和东线，也就是遁列茨克州的地区。而乌军在这个地区是契今以来的。从二零一二年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚，并煽动东欧二洲独立以来，孤军就在队列策境内以违约的标准构成了大量的防御工事，形成了一条以斯拉维亚、斯克和克拉玛托尔斯克为核心的堡垒带。按照常理来说，用兵应该出奇制胜德军这种专门往堡垒带上冲的打法，颇有些较灭太平局的曾国藩所用的结印带打该仗的功课。不过，凭借自身在炮弹上的火力优势和真正改变了战量形势的滑翔制导炸势的使用，这种炸弹可以让俄军飞机在乌军防空导弹的设置之外，投放安全的投放优势。虽然这些炸弹是对美国西方美式捷达母炸弹的粗糙单弹在精构上肯定性上肯定无法与乌克兰是和西方武器相提并论，但是对一点五吨的装药和庞大的数量，完全抵消了西方武器的度弹的优势，而全概括了地方炮武器在经济上精度上的优势相为改变战场游戏规则的改变者。而乌军重心经营十四年的堡垒城市，像马林卡尔阿夫迪夫卡则将继陷落伊在南部和东部战线发动猛攻的同时，俄军在北部战线也有一些动作。比如像在二零二二年，哈尔科夫大反攻时丢失的库皮卡尔科夫库皮杨斯克进军，但最终这些都被废置为牵制行动。这个乌军指挥部无法将这里的部队调往东线和南线增援。不过，从上周六开始至二零二二年之后再度起对哈尔科夫州的入侵。这一次，于二零二二年开战时，派出猛装甲部队全速突进，穿插不同，还是在进行了充分的炮火和轰炸准备之后，派出的有步兵为主的单位，却行步步归一制的进攻。关于这次而这次进攻行动的规模虽然远远超过今天，是养空用的，呃，是规模达到了五万人，但是要想夺取乌克兰的第二大城市，阿尔科夫似乎是远远不足的。所以关于这次第二次哈尔科夫攻势网上的片端有三种，一种是直接攻占哈尔科夫，第二种则是碰到缓冲区。因为一年以来，一旦乌克兰军队的前线吃力，那么就会派主打着自由俄罗斯军团旗炮的小虎部队进入俄罗斯的亚布罗德赤都进行骚扰活动。所以此战的目的就是要建议老城区保护俄罗斯本土的第三个可能就是之前已经部署到德系的俄军部队空西夹击已经保持这样和以西的陆军大部队战争打了两年以来，双方还没有打出一场大战的那种规模的回歼战。所以如果这一次行动，如果我一拿解六支表战会。所以如果打了两年以后。

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The war between Russia and Ukraine has recently taken a major turn. Since the end of the counter-offensive that began last summer, the two sides have been playing like a turn-based game, with Ukraine on the defensive and Russia on the offensive. But the main thrust of the Russian army was on the southern and eastern fronts, namely the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian army is doing all it can in this area. Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and instigated the "independence" of the two eastern Ukrainian regions, the Ukrainian army has built a large number of fortifications in Donetsk to the standard of default, forming a belt of fortifications centered around Slavyansk, Avdivka and Kramatorsk. According to common sense, the use of troops should surprise the victory, the Russian army this special to the fortress with a rush of fighting, quite like Zeng Guofan used when the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was destroyed, "tie the hard fortress, fight the dumb battle" exercise.

However, with their superior firepower in artillery shells and the use of glide guided bombs, which really changed the situation of the war, this bomb allows Russian aircraft to safely drop bombs outside the range of Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles. Although these bombs are a rough imitation of the American JDAM bomb, the accuracy is certainly not comparable to Western weapons, but the 1.5 tons of charge and huge number completely offset the accuracy advantage of Western weapons, and the advantages of cheap Russian artillery weapons in economics and accuracy have become a game-changer in the battlefield. Fortified cities such as Marinka and Avdivka, which the Ukrainian army had been working on for 14 years, would fall.

In parallel with the onslaught on the southern and eastern fronts, the Russian army also made some moves on the northern front. For example, in 2022, when the Kharkiv counteroffensive lost Kupiyansk, Igum, the Russian army marched, but eventually these were abolished as diversionaries. Because the Ukrainian army command could not transfer the troops here to the eastern and southern fronts to reinforce.

However, since Saturday, the Russian military has resumed the invasion of Kharkiv region. This time, unlike the 2022 war, which sent a huge armored force at full speed, the Russian army sent infantry units to carry out a step-by-step attack after full artillery and bombing preparations. As for the scale of the offensive, although much larger than today, it was a feint, reaching 50,000 men, but it seemed far from sufficient to capture Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine.

So about this second Kharkiv offensive, there are three judgments on the Internet: one is to take Kharkiv directly; The second is the porcelain buffer. For a year, when the Ukrainian army's front line was tight, it would send small units under the banner of the "Free Russian Army" into Russia's Belgorod state to harass it. So the purpose of the war was to create a buffer zone to protect the Russian mainland; A third possibility is the Russian units that had been deployed to Belarus, the air barrage to the west has been maintained, and the large Army units to the west. Two years into the war, the two sides have not fought a major war, a battle of that scale. So if this operation, if the Russians take Igum, this war could... So if after two years of fighting.