VanEck's Analysis

Bitcoin had a terrible year in 2022 because every single quarter was negative, which is a new record for Bitcoin. Some people are forecasting that the price of Bitcoin could be in for more trouble things could be about to get worse. That is basically the sentiment we are seeing shared across the internet right now. VanEck's analysis is seeing Bitcoin fall to 10k something in the first quarter. The reason for this is the continued bankruptcy of the Bitcoin mining space. We could all see bankruptcy in other spaces like Genesis Bitcoin lending, they are in big trouble right now and under investigation by the SEC.

They are costing back their workforce and they are closing their wealth management aim. They were one of the biggest Bitcoin lenders, so that could have a bit effect on the market. Also, have a rough macro backdrop continuing to overshadow all markets right now. The VanEck analysis also said they see a price rally up to $30,000 in the third quarter of this year as we see inflation starting to reach its lowest level. We can see an easing of energy fears, Europe is going to have the whole summer to sort out the energy situation.

A likely reversal by the FED, they have said we should not expect the interest rate should go lower this year. At least if they stop hiking interest rates, that is going to be a good thing. In other to understand that $30,000 VanEck predicted, there are some contests we need to consider. If you look back at the last two bear markets, you see that we have two rallies within those bear markets and 2019 was the most famous of those. Within those rallies, the price actually comes within 30% of the all-time high. It run some fast that it had everyone fooled thinking the new bull run is here when in reality it is the bear market catching everybody off-guard.

If we look at the Bitcoin chart, we can that from the 2018 bottom up to the 2019 top was 330%. Regardless of how high the market goes in a potential 2023 market rally, my bet is going to come down to what equity does and the state of crypto these days. Right now, Bitcoin is just trading like the volatile version of tech stocks and Altcoins are trading like a super volatile version of tech stocks right now. When equity goes down, crypto tends to go down with it and when equity goes up, sometimes crypto goes and sometimes doesn't.

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