One of the most sought after sanctions against Russia by the US and the UK has been denying them access to the SWIFT network, SWIFT is the most used payment system in the world it moves billions maybe trillions of dollars every day and being kicked out basically makes you a pariah in the world community you basically cannot sell or buy if you are not in SWIFT.
Several European countries such as Germany and Italy are not to keen to take this step as they are very dependent on Russian oil, not only that also on grains from both Russia and the Ukraine, but it seems mounting pressure from the other countries will force them into agreeing with this sanction.
Now will this hurt Russia? I don't think the results will be as catastrophic as the West thinks it will be, first of all China has its own payment system, CIPS, which is nearly identical to SWIFT, as the West is looking to cut all purchases of Russian products Russia actually will not need SWIFT, it will sell oil and gas, grains and minerals to China, India and a lot of other smaller countries, come to think of it I think the West, mostly EU countries would be shooting themselves in the foot and as a domino effect we will see all over the world a hefty increase in oil and food prices.
But the most interesting thing is that Russia and China could turn to Bitcoin or crypto to make their commercial transactions, this would result in a huge demand for crypto, but also I think the Western countries will try to put ever more sanctions on crypto, this makes it interesting to see what happens.
In the meantime, given I don't see how Ukraine can stop the Russian juggernaut and the West is not going to help I hope they just reach some sort of agreement, perhaps a neutral Ukraine, this only to stop the bloodshed. Asking civilians to use molotov cocktails to try and harras a well equiped invading army is like asking them to commit suicide, and for all the videos I bet you the government big shots are safely hidden.
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China has a very cautious attitude towards cryptocurrency (to put it mildly). But Russia and China can switch completely to national currencies and cross out the dollar from their turnover. At least among themselves. Other Eastern and Latin American countries may join them.
The isolation of Russia from the West may result in the integration of Russia with the East.
But given the desire for digitalization (and China has moved far in this matter), the crypt can really be in demand.
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hi @gduran
I myself am not really convinced if introducing SWIFT sanctions is a way to go.
Sanctions didn't "break" goverment of Iran, Venezuela or neither North Korea. It only made things worse for regular people. And implementing sanctions which target common people should be as illegal as shooting to them and killing them.
After all, Putin will still carry on with his war. But thousands of common Russians will die because of economic consequences.
Biggest irony is, that as far as I'm aware - european countries are still buying oil and gas from Russia. While revenue from that trade is directly the one used by Russian governing party.
Perhaps you may find my own post worth visiting:
SWIFT SANCTIONS - is it a NUCLEAR WEAPON in financial markets?
Cheers, Piotr
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