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IJCH - Inside JaiChai's Head
(Meaning: My Warped, Personal Opinions and Musings)

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From the Author:

Salutations.

I am JaiChai.

And if I haven't had the pleasure of meeting you before, I'm delighted to make your acquaintance now.

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I invite you to interact with everyone, learn, and have as much fun as possible!
For my returning online friends, "It's always great to see you again!"

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Today, while tidying up my hard drive, I came across this post from a year ago: (IJCH) Crystal Ball Predictions that will Disrupt the Computing Space (Each one is a Potential Nerd Boner!).

In the post, I submitted a short list of reasons why I believed that many things in the Computer Space were about to go through some major changes.

Here's that list of reasons:

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• Compared to the old days where exorbitant RAM prices moved the majority of the computer industry towards the CISC instead of RISC architecture, RAM is much more affordable now.

• The need to kill Moore's Law.

• The limitation of Core vs. Performance as per Amdahl's Law.

• Industry trends towards energy efficient systems (AKA lower electricity costs; especially for the burgeoning server farm industry).

• The cut throat competition within the semi-conductor, consumer electronics, and Cloud Services spaces; plus the rising costs of prototyping and production of new products. (Note: Industry Motto: "Adapt, Innovate or Die!)

• Proprietary Hardware/Standards (AKA OEM and Consumer Strangle Holds, Ransom for software compatibility/chip upgrade - "Innovation Held Hostage", etc.) of Intel and AMD within the semi-conductor space.

• The inability to launch small product lines because of the "Mass Production Only" mentality.

(End of list)

Then came these 10 predictions and their relevant prognostic data .

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1. Many more Cores will continue to be incorporated in the SOC (System On a Chip) and SIP (System In a Package) architecture. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see 128 core systems dedicated to Gaming that depends on Ray Tracing technology.

2. A return to separate, dedicated FPGA and GPU chip architecture. Think of it. Most chips do not need the expensive 7 nanometer manufacturing. They can be produced with cheaper, larger 28 nanometer tech.

3. Higher performance 2D and 3D (layered) SIP systems with LOWER Gigahertz clock speeds; making heat mitigation/dissipation less of an issue.

4. Increased "Retro-Parallelization" of legacy software and future-proofing of new software; that is, parallel processing built-in from the ground up. Why? Because parallel processing is the only way to fully take advantage of increasing Core counts.

5. Consequently, there will be a sharp increase of Functional Language Programmers (e.g., Haskell, LISP, Scala, Elixir, etc.) because, unlike OOP, it supports parallel processing superbly.

6. A real time, seamless Hardware Solution for converting sequential, legacy software into parallel processed segments.

7. A Robust Software Solution for doing the same thing (sequential to parallel) on the fly.

8. ARM Holdings surpassing AMD and Intel in the chip market for servers, desktops, and laptops. I mean, just look at ARM's supremacy in the handheld, mobile market and you can see the logic in my rationale. BTW, Apple, Google and Microsoft are already heading towards RISC over X86 ISA in their road maps.

9. Because of the current Trump vs. China pissing contest and the lack of flexibility in chip design/upgrades for specialized apps and Dapps, there will be a huge RISC-V (Open Standard) adoption by OEMs - instead of the X86 ISA.

10. A steadily growing PAAS (Processing As A Service) industry which will lead to cheap, thin clients or mobile phones capable of running processor intensive gaming courtesy of the processor power in the Cloud.

(End of predictions.)

When I wrote the predictions last year, I thought it would take at least 3 years to see when/if they would manifest.

But surprisingly, as I reread last year's predictions, I realized that every one of them has already been sufficiently addressed!

That's when I decided to forego the multi-year waiting period and tally up my correct and/or incorrect predictions.

I represent my final outcome as the "Nostradamus Quotient" of the success (or failure) of my predictions.

The Nostradamus Quotient

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The Nostradamus Quotient is obtained by calculating two simple mathematical formulas.

Here's how it's done:

Definition of Variables -

H = a "Hit" is correct prediction.

M = a "Miss" is an incorrect prediction.

P = a prediction.

+NQ = Positive Nostradamus Quotient. It reflects the level of predictive success and is represented by a Real Number from zero (no success) to positive "1.0" (100% correct predictions).

-NQ = Negative Nostradamus Quotient. It reflects the level of predictive failure and is represented by a Real Number from zero (no failure) to negative "1.0" (100% incorrect predictions).

Formulas -

+NQ = ∑H / ∑P

The Positive Nostradamus Quotient equals the sum of all H divided by the sum of all Predictions.

(example: +NQ = 6/10 --> +NQ = 0.6 or 60% successful/correct predictions)

-NQ = (∑M/ ∑P) * -1

The Negative Nostradamus Quotient equals the sum of all M divided by the sum of all Predictions and multiplied by -1.

(example: -NQ = (4/10) * -1 --> -NQ = -0.4 * -1 --> -NQ = -0.4 or 40% unsuccessful/incorrect predictions)

Test for Validity -

I+NQI + I-NQI = 1; else False.

The sum of the absolute values of +NQ and -NQ must equal positive "1"; if not, input and/or calculations contain errors and render all results invalid.

(example: using the previously calculated values of +NQ and -NQ values, we get I0.6I + I0.4I = 1)

My Results?

Nine of my ten predictions were correct!

Prediction 8. was the lone prediction failure because NVidia recently purchased ARM Holdings.

So, my +NQ is .80 (80% success) and my -NQ is -0.10 (10% failure).

Imagine that?

By JaiChai

May you and yours be well and love life today.
Really Appreciate You Stopping By.
Truly hope to see you again!

And if you liked my post, kindly Upvote, Comment, Follow, and ReSteem.

About the Author:

Believing that school was too boring, he dropped out of High School early; only to earn an AA, BS and MBA in less than 4 years much later in life – while working full-time as a Navy/Marine Corps Medic.

In spite of a fear of heights and deep water, he performed high altitude, free-fall parachute jumps and hazardous diving ops in deep, open ocean water.

After 24 years of active duty, he retired in Asia.

Since then, he's been a full-time, single papa and actively pursuing his varied passions (Writing, Disruptive Technology, Computer Science and Cryptocurrency - plus more hobbies too boring or bizarre for most folk).

He lives on an island paradise with his girlfriend, teenage daughter and two dogs.

"My mind was a terrible thing to waste..." - JaiChai