Hurricane update.

in hurricane •  4 years ago 

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Marco landfall now set for Monday afternoon in Louisiana. Expecting category 1 and steady motion, so flooding and storm surge potentials should be limited. Current forecast has Marco going inland and dropping to tropical storm status about probably just before Laura spins up to hurricane force, so we probably won't have two active hurricanes in the gulf simultaneously...but it will be a close call.

Marco may bring some rain, and even a 10% chance of tropical storm winds (39 mph sustained) to the Dallas area. Local forecast isn't showing much rain yet.

Laura is expected to hit the same area, but is now expected to be 2 1/2 days behind. Also a category one, with steady movement that should limit the scope of flooding.

Nothing in these forecasts looks especially dangerous, but Laura's imminent landfall will certainly interrupt recovery efforts after Marco.

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Still a lot of variability between models. The cone sizes are based on the last 5 years of forecasts, but these two forecasts seem pretty brittle. I'd expect better than normal odds that at least one of them breaks out of the cone and does something odd. (One model has Laura hitting Houston, another has Marco's landfall east of New Orleans, etc.) Remnants of Marco are expected to fall apart quickly, Laura may go up to about the AR/MO border then turn east.

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