Sighs that recession might invade India soon.

in india •  6 years ago  (edited)

The latest trends show India inflation rate has fallen below than expected by anyone in the market.
The inflation rate has fallen to its record low of 18 months to 2.16% in December 2018.
For some, it is a relief but falling off the inflation rate below the expectation of the RBI is not good.
The Consumer Price Index in India decreased by 0.43 percent in December of 2018 over the previous month, the biggest monthly decline in two years.
Look at it.
inflation.png

The decrease in inflation could be interpreted in different ways.

Phillips inflation curve shows the relation between inflation and unemployment.

phillips curve.png

If we look at the unemployment rate which data has not been released by the Government from 2-3 year seem to be accelerating at a high pace as predicted by other independent agencies. Could be easily understood when 25 million people apply for 90000 railway jobs.Not publishing the unemployment does not mean it is falling.

The food inflation in India is declining at 2.51% means the food item price is have come down. This directly affects the income of the food sector means the income of farmers.
India economy is growing in at 7% approx. for the last decade but the unemployment is increasing which may have cause low inflation rate.

India story might end in mass unemployment.

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