I haven’t crunched the number but that seems far above the FMV if other stocks are a good guide, and factoring in dick measuring and so on. My guess would be 60% to 70%. Like maybe 50% just from the drop in revenue, then 20% due to change in market (so, 60%), plus any Elon skepticism or boost.
I personally would be a buy today at $12b valuation. Not that it won’t do well eventually, but there is opportunity cost (that is, expected performance relative to other possible investments).