News those who didn't get their fill of electoral politics during the US presidential election can use!

in israeli •  4 years ago 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/renegade-likud-mk-quits-after-hastening-election-colleague-calls-her-a-bitch

Yes, the Israeli government is about to fall (may already have done so by the time you read this), and they will have their fourth election in two years. To add to the entertainment value, this (to my mind predictable) breakdown of the ruling coalition includes MKs (members of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament) calling each other names like "insolent bitch" and "political pig." They make Congress seem like a model of civility.

On a slightly more serious note, the Israeli political system is notable for the large number of parties, and the way new parties quickly form and (often) just as quickly collapse. It's a product of a society divided along multiple fault lines combined with an almost pure proportional representation system, where any party that gets 3.25% of the vote can get seats in the Knesset.

The election could determine the fate of PM Benjamin Netanyahu. If he finally loses, the prosecution of corruption charges against him will fully proceed, and he could end up in prison (as did his predecessor Ehud Olmert). Whether he will in fact lose (in the sense of not being able to form a coalition to continue as PM), is very hard to predict, at least for me.

I do think, however, that even if Bibi finally gets the axe, the new government is likely to continue most of his major policies (at least on defense and foreign policy). I may be missing something on the hyper-complicated Israeli political scene. But I don't see any way a non-Bibi coalition can form without including parties that largely support his key foreign policies, but hate the man himself.

The Israeli system is also hard to fully grasp for Westerners because it features divergences on at least three major axis, rather than just one "left-right" one: hawks vs. doves (though the latter have faded recently), religious vs. secular, relatively market-oriented vs. relatively statist on economics. There is also ethnic politics (Ashkenazim vs. Sephardim, Jews vs. Arabs, etc., though it seems to me that ethnic divisions among Jews are less significant than 20-30 years ago). Moreover, a party's position on one of these dimensions doesn't necessarily predict where it stands on others.

More can be said, and I'm sure experts in Israeli politics will correct mistakes I have made above. I may not comment much further. And I've deliberately avoided going into my own normative views on Israeli issues (as that would stir a bigger hornets' nest than I have time for right now). But I look forward to watching the electoral show, when and if time allows!

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