It’s weird how Milei is so good on some things and so bad on other things.

It is very rare to see a combination like this.

I expect that to the extent Milei is able to focus on realignment with the West, free trade (including with China), and market liberalization (including privatization by public offering, but absolutely excluding employee privatization), Argentina will do well.

To the extent he focuses on bizarre populism like abolishing the central bank (although Argentina needs sane monetary reform), promoting conspiracy theories (including antivaxerism), restricting migration, and scapegoating or belittling demographic groups like GSM and migrants, and undermining democratic norms, Argentina will do badly.

Since he will probably do both, I expect a dramatic shift in winners and losers in Argentina, but I can’t confidently asses which will outnumber the other.