How to draft a better bet for the Historic Belmont Stakes Horse Race #11 (Triple Crown) on June 9, 2018

What: Historic Race #11 is the Biggest Race of 2018 and perhaps since 1978!

When: June 9, 2018 at 6:37pm

Why: It could break many Triple Crown records at Belmont Track, NY

How long: This Will Be Just 2 Minutes long to Watch as Fantastic Horse Racing History is Made.

Who: The Horses coming to the race are;

I suggest you watch each horse run in the links below. Get a sense of the track, wet or dry, sun or rain and whether its race was close and in high traffic or with ample room to negotiate a line on the horse track.

In 1.5 miles alot can happen in 2 minutes, but the race can be won or lost at the very start or at the last second which makes for exciting live racing to watch.

If you have $2 to wager a bet, you can bet a Horse to come in 1st, or 2nd or 3rd. You get paid if you are correct in choosing and this blog post will help you draft a better bet in a few minutes so read on.

The "Favorite" to win is named "Justify" its related to the famous 1973 Winner "Secretariat" and its already won 2 huge victories in 2018 that make this next race a potential moment in racing history.

1st in this Belmont Stakes 2018 race will not only win Justify the Triple Crown Prize, the most desired prize in horse racing but also break a long track record more than 25 years old.

The Odds you read beside the name of a horse "4-5" mean that you earn 4/5 or say 20% on a each $2 wager. So $100 earns $120 if placed as a $2 to WIN, you get $20 more than your $100 wager.

The more exotic bets can pay you $4500 or more on the same $2 wager by attempting to select the EXACT 2, 3 or 4 Horses in exact order for the Race#11 dubbed the Belmont Stakes. Some bets are as low as $0.20 but they involve picking 4 to 5 exact matches to the race outcome which is a lottery outcome unless you have a brain and instinct to fine the combination.

A big race can attract $100 Million in Wagers between Fans online or at the Event. This means the PAYOUT can be enormous as the EXOTIC bets are POOLED and the IMPROBABLE BETS with HIGH ODDS can pay Asymetric or outsized returns but they are like picking lottery numbers.

An "EXACTA" means you think horse A and B will come in that exact order A,B in first and second. An exacta can be "BOXED" which means you combine B,A and A,B so that no matter which outcome occurs you cover both bets.

This can be further modified to Bet three or four horses where you know the 1st place horse but aren't sure who takes 2nd and you desire to bet A in first, With B,C or D in Second. This gets expensive the more you add so you need to be choosey and select based on a real method that you find makes sense to MATH PROBABILITIES and your BUDGET as well and what happens the days before or during the race.

If HORSE "D" has had 4 months to recover from a race, and its ODDS are 50:1 its possible it can come in 3rd or 4th and beat a 7:1 or 12:1 contender who has had only 3 weeks of rest and is running on a bruised shin or mild injury that you are aware of.

The straight up way to bet is "$2 for Horse "X" to WIN in Race#11 at track Belmont" and this is simple and fun.

The slightly more expensive way is "$2 to WIN, PLACE or SHOW and will give you 3X the chances to recover your money but cost 3 x $2 at the bet window.

Lets get a sense of what each contender can do, how it runs and what past performance has been. (Yet the only thing that matters race day is which whisker of a nose crosses the line first)

Justify odds 4-5 Video

Hofburg 4-1 Video

Bravazo 7-1 Video

Vino Rosso 8-1 Video

Tenfold 10-1 Video

Blended Citizen 14-1 Video

Gronkowski 25-1 Video

Noble Indy 33-1 Video

Free Drop Billy 50-1

Obviously the Odds are prepared by skilled sports statisticians who follow many inputs that create the fraction they assign to each horse. However, a 50:1 odds horse is just a 1 of 9 chance when horses are math probabilities so it has a 1 in 9 chance of crossing the line first mathematically speaking without factoring in its trainers, pedigree or past results.

Once you read more on each animal and its history, your mind starts wandering into assessing factors that are weighted more or less than each competitor and whether any science is involved or not in how you picture the information, the math or probabilities can be skewed by your perspective.

Lets say you throw out 50:1 and 33:1 as having a realist probability of being 1st but assign them a 50% chance of being 3rd or 4th. If you have made a grid of 9 x 9 = 81 squares you have 81 possible combinations for 1st and 2nd place. Yet you just said the 50:1 and 33:1 aren't first place pics so now your grid is 7x7 and that is 49 bet options for 1st and 2nd.
If you keep going discarding some data and emphasizing other data you should get to a sample of less than 20 possible numbers for 1-2-3-4th place and that is the goal before the race day. Once you have the SHORTLIST you can set a budget of how much risk and what horses or types of combinations to go with. If you have 10 friends with $20 burning a hole in their pocket you can pool the $200 into a risk of say 20% high risk high payoffs and 50% sure things and 30% on Exotica or Exacta bets.

Watch each video, read each Race Profile on race day and whittle the number down from 81 to 49 and then keep going until you have say a 4 by 4 or 16 possible bets for that race. This is the enjoyable part if you have time to read and scrutinize, if you are confused and under pressure for time, then a straight bet to WIN or PLACE is easy and timeless.

Now select most likely 4th place picks, compare track times, past performance and general stats for each animal and get a card of 2-3 picks of a horse that will come in 4th. Now repeat for 3rd place by weeding out the winners who previously raced each other (taken from buying a $0.25 race profile page for Belmont Stakes). When you see horse "D" beat "E" 3 times in past year on the profile and you are trying to pick which horse in 3rd or 4th you can gauge from Profile Sheets who is generally faster on 1-1/2 mile races and whittle your picks somewhat down to better numbers.

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Example of a Bet Ticket with Lingo

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Question: What I want to do is find the straight forecast probability of Horse A winning and Horse B finishing second. I know there are 2! combinations for this to happen, but I'm not sure where to progress from here (or if it is possible). If the horses all had equal probabilities of winning I think it would be easier.

Answer: If you had probabilities on four horses winning a race converted to fractions;.
Horse
A =0.52
B=0.33
C= 0.11
D=0.04

Then probability that Horse B finishes second given that Horse A finished first.

It's no longer going to be 0.33, since the 3 probabilities of 0.33,0.11,0.04 no longer sum to 1, but 0.48.

To fix this, we can scale these 3 probabilities by dividing each by 0.48.
(Note that this is a simplifying assumption; it's not guaranteed to work all the time.)

This yields:
P(A is first, B is second)=P(A is first)P(B is second∣A is first)=(0.52)(0.33/0.48)=0.3575

So A being first and B being second is 35.75% chance

What if there are 8 horses in a race, how do i look at the math?

So if there are say 8 horses with odds written like 4-5 or 7-1 how do you convert to true odds?

The Belmont Track - Race will be 1-1/2 Miles this is a bit longer than most races, so a horse that breaks out fast at the beginning may not be able to hold on to the end at same pace, often the last 1/8 mile has drop offs and others breakout who finish really strong called "closers"

Over 100,000 people will attend the race in person and online the audience for the 2 minutes will be in the millions.

Be a part of History on June 9