The 144th running of the Kentucky Derby is just hourse away. After spending time over the past month to make my picks, I felt compared to share them with you so I can say "I told you so" after my top pick is wearing the roses this evening.
If you've read anything about this year's Derby, you know two things:
It's a deep field.
Justify is the heavy favorite.
If betting on the race, keep in mind that the favorite's have won the past five Kentucky Derby's. However, there are no guarantees as no horse in this field has ran with this level of competition, competed at this distance (1 1/4 mile), and with close to 100,000 screaming fans cheering them on. Anything can happen.
Without further ado, here are my picks for this year's Kentucky Derby along with four longshots I would keep your eye on during the race.
First Place -- Mendelssohn
Image Source: Neville Hopwood/Dubai Racing Club
Mendelssohn went for $3M as a yearling for a reason, and as of late, he has been living up to every expectation. Mendy (my affectionate nickname for the horse) won the Grade 2 UAE Derby by an incredible 17 lengths while breaking a course record. He got a clean trip he may not find in the Kentucky Derby, but his pedigree, speed, and previous results all point to a horse that can win the Derby and upset the heavy favorite in Justify.
Second Place -- Justify
Justify is the favorite for a very good reason. He is a powerful horse who has won all three of his races by a mile (not literally). He has not been challenged and with only three races, we have yet to see how he will react to a large field. Justify is an incredible horse and may be a superstar, but I think he comes up just short in today's Derby.
Third Place -- Bolt d'Oro
Before finishing second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby, Bolt d'Oro was considered to be a frontrunner for the Kentucky Derby, and he is still one of the top few choices at 8-1. d'Oro looks like he can handle the long distance, and should be right in the mix in the final stretch of the race.
Fourth Place -- Vino Rosso
Sometimes choosing the winner of the Kentucky Derby comes down to finding the horse that is just hitting his peak, and that very well could be Vino Rosso. Vino was bred to go this distance, and in his last race, the 1 1/8M Grade 2 Wood Memorial, Vino Rosso gutted out a nice victory over fellow Derby rival Enticed. In other years, Vino Rosso would be a favorite, but even in this tough field, he's a good bet to finish in the top 4.
Three Live Longshots To Watch
Flameaway: Currently listed at 48-1, Flameaway is a very tough horse who never gives up, even against top competition. His bloodline says that he might prefer a shorter race, but he will give it his all until the wire and he also likes a little rain on the track.
Lone Sailor: Lone Sailor posted an incredible workout this week that got the attention of Derby bettors. After being posted a 50-1 longshot, he has been bet down to 25-1, and I think is still a solid value to come in 3rd or 4th with a late run of tiring horses.
Free Drop Billy: Starting out of the #2 gate, the 42-1 Free Drop Billy likes to sit off of the pace and make a run late, which is perfect for this race. He is also another horse that should have no problem with this long distance. Watch out for him charging late.
