바이든이 미국 대통령이 되었다. 트럼프가 저항하고 있지만 결과는 정해졌다. 이제 곧바로 정권인수위가 편성될 것이다. 앞으로 바이든은 어떤 정책을 추구할 것인가?
미국의 정책은 곧바로 전세계 국가들에게 직접적인 영향을 미친다. 그 중에서 한국은 가장 영향을 크게 받는 나라다.
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바이든의 미국은 중국을 봉쇄하기 위한 정책을 가장 우선적으로 추진할 것이다. 오바마의 대중국 봉쇄 정책을 그대로 이어 받을 것이라고 생각한다. 오바마 당시 미국은 베트남과 미얀마를 집중적으로 공략했다. 미얀마는 소수민족인 로힝야 족 문제로 국제사회의 지탄을 받기도 했지만 오바마가 아시아 외교에서 가장 공을 들인 국가였다.
오바마가 전략적 인내를 내세우며 북한과 대화를 하지 않은 이유가 무엇일까 이유를 고민하면서 보면서, 어차피 핵을 가질 북한이라면 중국을 북한에 대한 제재에 동참하게 만들면서 북중관계를 악화시키려고 했던 것이 아닐까 하는 생각을 해 본적이 있었다. 북한에게 중국을 믿을 수 없는 나라라고 생각하게 만드는 것이 미국의 전략 아닐까 하는 것이다. 그렇지 않고 다른 이유로 북한의 핵을 전략적 인내라고 하면서 그냥 그대로 내버려 둔 것을 설명하기 어려웠다.
바이든의 미국은 중국을 봉쇄하고 차단하는 정책을 구사하면 가장 타격을 크게 받는 나라가 한국이다. 한국은 교역의 1/4를 중국에 의존하고 있다. 동남아시아 화교 자본과의 거래를 포함하면 적어도 40%정도는 중국과 직간접적인 연관이 있을 것이다. 미국이 중국 봉쇄 정채을 본격화하면 한국은 경제적인 어려움에 직면하게 된다.바이든은 북한과 적극적인 대화를 추진할 가능성이 높다.
트럼프가 북한문제를 대충 얼버무리려 했다면 바이든은 중국을 봉쇄하기 위해 북한을 회유하려 할 가능성이 크다. 북한은 중국이 가지고 있는 여러가지 아킬레스 건 중의 하나이기 때문이다. 북핵관련 대화는 전향적으로 전개될 가능성이 높다. 북한핵과 미사일을 현상황에서 동결하는 조건으로 상당한 수준의 경제제재를 풀어줄 것이다.
한국은 북미회담이 진행될 때 줄어드는 중국과의 교역을 벌충하기 위해 남북간 경제교류를 자유롭게 할 수 있도록 미국에 적극적으로 요구해야 한다. 물론 중국에서 줄어드는 만큼 미국시장의 접근을 용이하게 해줄 것을 용이해야 한다.
바이든이 이렇게 정책을 바꾸어 나가면 현재 존재하는 한국의 정치세력은 그 누구도 바이든의 미국과 파트너가 되기 어렵다.