When is the UK generl election?

hello I'm G guruthi it is now time for your questions [Music] answered well of course it's been a huge week in the political calendar with the general election finally being called for July the th thank you for getting in touch with the BBC for your questions about all of that and with me to try and answer as many of them as possible are three guests Joe tryman from Delta pole which is the public opinion consultancy our own political correspondent Harry Farley and Ben Paxton from The Institute for government welcome to all of you

this afternoon thanks for being with us well we've had a few questions and uh we're going to start with Ben and a question for you um because of course this comes in July this vote often we we have votes in May or perhaps potentially in the Autumn but July not a common date it is holiday season for many parts of the UK and there's a question from Lynn aged who's asking how do I vote if I'm on holiday can I apply for a postal vote so that's a great question so yeah this is the first July election we've

had since in the UK so if you're on holiday there's two ways you can vote you can apply for a postal Vote or you can get someone to vote on your behalf fire a proxy vote now polling day is on the th of July but to do both of those things you're going to need to apply beforehand so for postal votes you'll need to have applied by the th of June and for a proxy vote you'll need to have applied by the th of June so need to get a move on if you're on holiday and that's something you're planning to do

okay we are we are all taking note of that um another question Joe for you if I can uh someone's called in to ask could there be a coalition government obviously at the moment there's a h huge poll lead for the labor party but could we be seeing a coalition government in July well if the last years of British politics have taught us anything it's that nothing can be ruled out but I do think it's at the moment looking unlikely polling is only ever a snapshot of public opinion at the given time and
the campaign could have a big effect on things and change the story entirely but as things stand at the moment it's looking good for labor they need to gain a more than seats at the election and by historical standards that's a huge amount now uh opinions differ on exactly what kind of Swing will be needed to achieve that but but the upper end of the estimates it said that a swing of around about % in excess of % will be required to get a majority just of two now by historical standards again that's a large number doesn't mean

it won't happen but it is larger than Tony Blair achieved in for instance which is the largest in post-war history up until this point and by some distance but in order to become the uh to get into hung Parliament territory they only need it's estimated a swing of around about % which is perfectly reasonable by uh uh by historical standards and so I think uh I think hung Parliament though unlikely could happen but far more likely based on the polling that we're seeing at the moment based on the

size of the leads and how long those leads have lasted it's looking like a less likely option and and Joe just very quickly just to follow up on that has there been any movement in the last two days since the announcement was made in the rain outside Downing Street well not only has there not been much movement in the last couple of days there really hasn't been much movement for a very long time the conservatives have been behind in every single published poll since December and labor have had a

double-digit lead since September and so these Trends are longlasting and the Gap is large and continues to be so we will wait and see if it changes during the campaign but no movement so far okay Harry let me bring you in um with a question uh linking a couple of our really big stories uh here in the UK at the moment we we've got a question asking will the election delay obviously Parliament is is breaking up today um will will the election delay compensation for victims of the infected blood Scandal and the

post office Scandal well there's a lot of political will across uh the different parties to see uh those compensations for both for the victims of that post office Horizon scheme that you mentioned and the victims of uh the um infected blood Scandal lot of will across the parties to see those happen in the last uh couple of days we've seen bills that would allow those compensation schemes to go ahead they've been passed it's called the wash out process basically where existing government bills are sort of rushed

through in the last couple of days before Parliament uh finishes sitting this evening uh so those two bills are are being passed as we speak I think possibly in the last few minutes one of them might have just passed uh as well so I think so those compensation packages will go ahead the legislation to enable them to do so uh is being passed uh right now I think and and there's there's we know that some things in in the wash up um area Harry some of the bills that we're going through have gone it represents a huge amount of work

doesn't by a lot of people so it's it's quite extraordinary really um we'll know by presumably what other uh bills do go through is that right yes roughly around then a lot of work as you say but also a lot of government promises for example the government promise from the Manifesto to uh to end no fault evictions for renters uh that would that's the one that stops land Lords evicting tenants uh without having to give a reason that was promised uh by the conservatives back in a bill to enable that to happen was

introduced to the counil of Commons more than a year ago uh but that will now not go through that is a a victim of as you say that wash up process another promise that rishy sunak made was to create the first smokefree generation that was a a legislation to try and gradually phase out smoking gradually make it illegal uh for people to smoke that now won't happen either he said it's he's disappointed that won't happen uh but there's a perhaps an indication that might well be something that's in the

conservative Manifesto if of course the conservatives get back into government on July the but as we've been hearing that is a big if at this stage thank you Harry Ben can I just bring you in with one that sort of links to that a question asking what happens to Parliament before the election yes so the election was called um a couple of days ago now by the Prime Minister then we enter that wash up period as just been said and that's going to be was just two days for this time round Parliament will be prorogued
this evening which means MPS will stop sitting in the Hou

se of Commons and then next Thursday Parliament gets dissolved and that point MPS cease to be MPS they just become candidates and there is no um MPS representing us specifically because the campaign's begun that also starts the working day countdown to polling day itself itself and that's then five weeks so then we have polling day on the fourth of July then Parliament meets a few days later to get things going again and just to follow up on that for everyone looking at a summer

ahead in the Autumn um Parliament returns and then what we'll go into normal recess for August and then you know party conferences back in September is that is that what happens I don't think we actually have the final dates of when this is all going to happen I don't think the recess dates have been finalized and we may not know that for a little bit longer yet okay um party conferences equally I think are a bit up in the air at the moment okay okay let us move on to another question Joe if I can ask you

could there be a pact between the conservatives and reform UK that question is also into us well that's a really good question there there could be uh but I think a formal pact is unlikely uh though some particularly uh in the conservative ranks might actually look to embrace such an idea I think I think the leadership of both parties uh have have previously ruled it out and may well do again but there's of course a distinction between a formal pact where one party agrees not to fight a particular in a particular constituency

and let the have a free run and then the sort of informal agreements where uh one party might prefer to just not try as hard basically but uh uh but I think in both cases it's unlikely to make a major difference because uh where whereas reform UK may take some votes from the conservatives of course it's not the conservatives in a lot of these constituencies they need to beat it's labor and so if you look at something like uh the Blackpool South byelection the uh the conservatives only narrowly held off reform with with reform coming

in third there but labor was so far ahead that even if all of the reform voters had voted conservative which of course was never going to happen they still wouldn't have beaten labor in a constituency that in many ways is uh is almost designed for reform to do well based on the demographics and the previous voting patents and so maybe there'll be some ad hoc unofficial agreement ments not to perhaps go quite as hard as they might in particular constituencies but I think a formal pact with this particular uh government in

Downing Street I think is unlikely but after the election well we'll just have to wait and see Harry a question for you how long have the Tories been in power well the conservatives have been in government uh for years since of course remember the first years of that they were in Coalition uh with the liberal Democrats that means they they were the largest party but they didn't have an overall majority of MPS so they needed a coalition agreement with another party in this case the liberal Democrats in order to create that

majority that enabled them to pass laws and then it's since that they've been in overall power themselves uh in in in government and in the majority in the House of Commons of course before that labor in power for years with uh from until so uh so Richi sunak I suppose that's one of the the challenges for him in many ways for this election campaign he's not just standing on the record of the time that he's been in charge that he's been prime minister and leader of the conservative party in

many ways he's also being judged on the record of his predecessors as prime minister and leader of the conservative party going back uh to Boris Johnson Liz truss of course Theresa May and David Cameron before that so I think that's Pro that's perhaps one of the challenges that he fa he not just standing on his own record he's also standing on the record of the LA of the last years of conservative LED government and Harry just to continue with that we have seen um a lot of MPS I think over a now

standing down and people like Harriet Harman I think she's the longest serving uh MP in the house at the moment uh certainly female member of the House of course um giving their farewell speeches and most of them will not have seen this coming that this was going to be the last day because once the May uh date as a potential election date passed people then sort of started to assume that it was probably going to be um Autumn so uh you know we've we've also seen Craig McKinley who made that amazing

appearance a couple of days ago saying sadly reluctantly he doesn't feel can fight another campaign yes that's right a number of MPS even even in the last hours announcing that they're stepping down we already as you say had over more than a MPS not just from the conservatives from across the political divide labor as well MPS announcing they're retiring or moving on to other things and as you say whatever happens after this election whoever wins whoever is the largest party the makeup of the

House of Commons will look very different because regardless uh as I say of of who wins and the result of the election there will be an awful lot of new MPS simply by virtue of the fact that so many are retiring or moving on to do something different I think one thing that's been noticeable is how many MPS have spoken about the difficulties they faced uh perhaps balancing their their life as an MP with with family matters or even indeed concerned about their security so a big churn will take place in the House of Commons whatever

the result of the election on July the th yeah the young MP for labor EMP I think for Halifax she's standing there the young child and is expecting another and just feel she can't balance um the life of an MP uh with you know with with everything else that she's got to do as as a family person and that is a really really big question isn't it about who goes into politics who can afford to go into politics who can make it work um and we need of course people of the highest caliber uh for all of our sakes

uh Ben let me ask you um a question why has Richie sunak called a general election in the summer so Richie sunak had the choice to call an election anytime and hold it anytime up to the uh end of January he's gone six months or more before that it was always a difficult decision to make do you call an election from the current position you're in even if the polls show you're behind like um Joe has explained earlier or wait and hope that the polls have improved Rishi sunak judged that this is the right time um

for him a big factor in any election is the economy and we know it's a big concern for voters this time round it's notable that the announcement of the election did come on the same day that the latest inflation Figures were announced and that showed inflation was at

% quite close to the bank of England Target of % but of course there's there's lots of factors uh and I'm not sure anyone but the PM and the people closest to to him really know exactly why even though there will be lots of speculation I'm sure in the coming weeks and and Harry just on that I I was I was talking to Nick herley who's traveling with um the prime minister at the moment about that because Nadine Doris had mischievously tweeted that you know the real reason for the um August for the July date was because US schools terms

start in August and if sunak doesn't win the election then he'll you know all the speculations all the questions about whether he's going to relocate back to California where he met his wife um that is a bit mischievous it's private but people have many many reasons don't they for for making these decisions and there's a lot of frustration amongst Tor MPS saying look we're so far behind in the polls every you know percentage point that shifts means that really really affects someone's job because
you're out of a job if you lose your seat yes t

hat's completely right a lot of uh Tori MPS expressing their concern should we say both uh privately and publicly is worth saying after that early election was called one cabinet minister text me to say well it's a brave decision to go early I think the reality is that a lot of those people closest to Rishi sunak Oliver daon who's known to be one of his closest friends in politics one of his closest political allies has long been making the case uh

for going early he's uh the argument is I suppose that you're seem to be seizing the initiative you look like you're uh Stronger perhaps if you decide to go early but as you say many of his back benches conservative MPS very concerned that he's chosen to go early when as we've been hearing there is such a large gap in the polling it's worth saying though polling is just polling there's only one poll that matters and as we've seen from previous elections uh a lot can change in six weeks absolutely and

Joe just to bring you in on your specialist subject how reliable are general election polls what is a bell weather seat a couple of questions there oh well uh I'll answer the uh I'll answer the second one first a bellweather seat is a seat that shows uh matches the overall result and so when uh when the conservatives are in power uh that particular seat will go to the conservatives and when labor are in power uh that seat will go to uh to labor and so with the new boundaries that have come into into force it does

get more confusing this time around and so you'll have to forgive me if I can't name the individual constituencies under the new boundaries uh that would be Bell weathers Bell weathers this time but there will be uh they will be out there so so take a look for for them and and how accurate are polls well as I say polls are only a snapshot of public opinion at the time and so at the moment we are not seeking to predict where we think the general election result will be because we still have six weeks

remaining and as we know one week is a long time in politics but what I can say is that final election polls uh historically speaking tend to be uh tend to be quite close though there are exceptions four out of five times they tend to be within the margin of error which is usually around plus or minus % now in a close election that could mean the difference between one party winning and the other party winning but at the moment the lead that labor have is substantial in all of the polling and indeed the kind of gains that parties

have made in election campaigns in the past are not large enough to offset that lead even if you factor in the largest ever polling Miss though I'm ashamed even to mention it uh from back in so even if you get the largest movement that we've seen in a campaign plus the largest polling miss you still see labor being probably the largest party in a hung Parliament which would be enough to get K starma into Downing Street yeah and of course people have pointed out that even if that happened even if there

was a sort of uh no clear majority it's not likely that the lib Dems would prop up a a Tory government and therefore it's unlik you it's very very difficult to see a return for the toys although I should say that the prime minister in his briefing journalists on the plane on his travels today is in fighting spirit so of course uh we will only know the outcome on July the th um Ben if I can ask you a few procedural questions that we've had in some you know people obviously suddenly having to take this

seriously that they are now going to be able to cast a vote for the government of their choice for the MP of their choice so we're getting questions like how do you apply for a postal vote who can vote in the general election and um How do I know who my mp is and what constituency I'm in so these are all great questions and really important for people to be asking so postal votes and proxy votes and to register to vote itself you can do online if you just um Google um register to votes or Postal votes um on the dove.

gov.uk website you should be able to find the information there if you're not able to use the Internet for whatever reason you can ring or get in touch with your local electoral office who'll be able to provide further inform information um and then what was your second question sorry I was think question is someone asked what constituency and who is my mp um yeah and who can vote who who is allowed to vote really important question with those boundary changes that have been mentioned so you know out

of the constituencies in England um I don't have the figures for elsewhere in the UK almost all of those are changing boundaries in the next election I think there's only about that are remaining unchanged so you may well be in a new constituency you can find that information online again there's a um you can go on the.
uk website or democracy Club is a place that gather all this information online they can find out you can find out where your polling station is and who the candidates are in your local area okay and do this boundary changes I mean obviously they are presumbly designed to be fair to all parties but is there an argument about whether they favor one party or another then I think that's quite hard to say um I don't they're designed in a way such that they're hoping not to produce a big change but it's very difficult to say at

this stage how that will affect the election result although I'm sure there be lots of speculation in the weeks ahead and after the election about that absolutely I'm sure there will um someone's asked when was the last general election Harry general election was in almost as we were hearing earlier almost five years ago the deadline uh legally for when um the next election has to be is the end of January in uh but as as we were hearing which exercise to go slightly earlier but uh but it has uh has been almost years

since the last election and Harry another one for you if I can what is the blue coast and why has Ed Davy focused on going to the south of England so Ed Davey is the leader of the liberal Democrat Party he is going to the south coast of England and uh and also I suppose it's fair to say the West uh Southwest of as well because those are the areas that he is hoping and expecting to win the most seats the liberal Democrats tend to be uh popular in those kind of parts of England in particular also in some areas of

Scotland so I suppose he's focusing his energies his his campaigning on those areas those particular constituencies that he thinks he can win so we saw him for example in chelham uh yesterday uh and I think and as you say he's down on the south coast today in eastborn where another seat that he thinks the liberal Democrats can win off the conservatives there are of course other seats around the country where perhaps the liberal Democrats face less of a chance perhaps they're coming in third or fourth and

they're more of a straight fight between Labor uh and the conservatives so it's worth uh as we were hearing earlier checking what constituency you're in uh checking who is standing in your constituency in your area uh before you decide who to vote for absolutely um Joe I'm going to ask you a couple if I can uh we've been asked when will we know the final result and uh We've also been asked um do we know who's going to win well uh as I as I said if if the last years of British politics have

taught us anything it's that nothing can be taken for granted but if you take three different points of evidence uh the current polling Trends uh the historical precedent and the most recent set of election results with meril local and by-elections that we had had recently if you look at all of those they all point to a labor Victory it's unlikely to be uh the sort of large three figure majority that the current polling suggest because we would by historical precedent expect at least some contraction in the polls uh during

the campaign not least from people who uh in other times would say oh I don't know who I'm going to vote for but then actually make up their mind one way or another uh but uh but that contraction is unlikely to be enough to change the overall story instead it's uh it is pointing at the moment and I do stress at the moment it's pointing to pointing to a labor victory of a size and uh and then with regards to the first question which I've forgotten so it was it was when will we know because obviously

there are calculations aren't there because the results coming obviously overnight on the th poll slows at we'll all be up working on or watching that program and um or those programs and um I'm sure uh at what point in the night do you think we will know or do you think we'll have to wait till the morning because if lab have a massive majority you'd know fairly early if it's tighter you'd have to wait presum and yes and that's what I was going to say if it is a hung Parliament which as I

say I don't think is a likely option at all but if it is a hung Parliament we may not know the overall result in terms of who's actually going into Downing Street for for a couple of days and perhaps perhaps even longer but assuming that's not the case we should know at some point in the in the early hours of the morning of course if you're John Curtis Sir John Curtis and one of his colleagues on the exit pole you may well know by around about lunchtime on on polling day but uh but for those of us

mere mortals uh the uh the exit pole will be announced at on on Election night that will give an indication and then as the results come in it will uh it will further confirm or indeed deny that the election the election is going along the lines of the exit pole and so as a result start to come in we we should get some we get a few from from Sunderland and New Castle uh within sort of minutes to an hour but the bulk of results will come in from sort of three at a.m.

onwards and I imagine that relatively quickly if it is a large labor Victory we will uh we will know so I would estimate that by sort of in the morning on uh on Friday the th of July we'll know th of July fifth yes Joe tryman Ben Paxton Harry Farley there's lots of games being played um amongst those who like these things working out majorities or hung Parliament numbers or whatever but we will find out very soon in weeks thank you all very much indeed let's get