How to mess with the probability?

 

What is probability of you getting hit by the car or have chance meeting with film star you always adored ?

Whatever number you come up with is not correct.

We always underestimate or overestimate probabilities for outcome we want to achieve. Of course, we do not want to be hit by car, so we would like its probability as low as possible. Same goes higher probability assigned to the chance meeting with the film star. 

If you think that higher or lower probability will drive the outcome of certain activity (in this case, hit by car or meeting with film star), it's not. That's where we fail to understand how probability works.

Probability works well over large number of occurrences over time, but in the short-term, randomness works just fine. If you are still not convinced, try flipping a coin for hundred times and count how many heads coin will land up. You would be surprised that it's not 50/50 as probability would obviously suggest. 

How would you mess with probability in such case ? 

Try increasing your odds.

Let us take example of getting hit by car. Your probability of that happening is 1 in 4292 (about 0.02%). Now try walking in the middle of the road at busy junction, you have suddenly increased your odds by almost six times to 1.2%. 

So, probability is not static as its often assumed. It's rather dynamic based on number of factors influencing it at particular moment.  Some treat it as randomness, some treat it as miracle such as chance meeting in hotel lobby with your favourite film star.