@bretjfeller an argument can be made that low inflation is structural and will remain low unless we see a pickup in wage growth around the world. Corporate margins and profits are at an all time high but that's not translating into wages. There's still underemployment and you also have e-commerce squeezing retail prices. Add to that automation taking people out of the workforce and just maybe inflation stays at an acceptable level.
I agree with you though. I think there will be a pick up in inflation this year but from a pretty low base. And with at least 3 interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve inflation should be contained in the short to medium term.
Its too early yet to know weather the next crisis will be deflationary or inflationary. But very interesting that the Fed is so optimistic despite the fact that they can't hit their inflation targets. That is if you believe their "core inflation."
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I'm more worried about them normalizing policy to quickly thus triggering an increase in interest and borrowing costs. I think that's where the next economic recession will come from plus, let's face it, the Fed always does this shit! :)
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