A股早盘放量大涨,跨年“春季躁动”行情有望启动 ?

in look •  10 months ago 

12月28日,三大指数早盘集体拉升,截至午盘,上证指数涨1.11%,深证成指涨2.34%,创业板指涨3.34%。两市半天成交额5391.4亿元,逼近前几天全天的成交额。部分投资者也期待能重回全天万亿成交。

业内人士认为,跨年行情有可能全面启动,“春季躁动”有望持续到春节前后,各种经济利好政策继续落实,人民币重新走强,上市公司年度业绩预告即将到来,各种数据估计没有此前市场预期悲观,这种预期差也会推动跨年行情延续。

鑫鼎基金首席经济学家胡宇向第一财经记者分析,跨年度行情正在进行中,理由主要有四方面:第一,各方面利好政策持续发酵,A股各指数均出现底背离信号,目前估值与历史相似时点相比,持有一年收益为正的概率大于90%;第二,国家队、北上资金、国内机构及中小投资者都在积极加仓抄底,大规模场外资金进场的节奏刚开始;第三,反弹热点集中于超跌板块,地产、金融、新能源等超调的行业向上弹性可能更大;第四,随着美联储加息接近尾声,中美利差收窄,人民币汇率仍有较大升值空间,外资加仓潜力大。

信达证券策略分析师樊继拓认为,最近三年权益投资赚钱效应减弱,投资者对长期经济、产业和权益投资较为迷茫,类似情况上一次应该是2012年底,连续三年指数不涨的情况也是类似。2012年金融创新大会、IPO暂停都扭转了股市供需,跟当前情况类似。2012年底到2013年,反转的利多是“经济小反弹+TMT产业机会的出现”。樊继拓预计,未来1年可能的利多是“经济小反弹+周期、AI等产业的机会+地产销售的反弹”。

广州一位私募人士向第一财经称,接下来市场的重要关注点,将会转移到上市公司的全年业绩预告,以及明年初即将公布的各行业营运和经济数据。考虑到市场此前比较悲观,如果接下来上市公司业绩,以及相关经济数据不是预期那么差的话,这种预期差将会是跨年行情的主要动力,有望延续到农历新年假期前后。

玄甲基金CEO林佳义认为,在利率见顶且市场对美联储降息预期乐观的基础上,全球股市持续演绎上涨,A股和港股在外部减持压力减缓,空头有所回补,驱动市场短期出现回补;另一方面,内地政策持续缓慢给予支持,预计随着支持力度的逐渐积累,以及出清的逐渐进入尾声,市场短期获得一波演绎“春季躁动”的机会,预计市场估值能大概修复20%到40%区间。至于行情是否持续,要看财政政策等落实力度,能否减缓地方政府、企业、居民的压力,释放投资、消费动能。

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