After halving block rewards - BCHvsBTC Who is attracting miners?

Since the birth of Bitcoin, miners have been the most important part of the bitcoin ecosystem, and the first miner in history was Bitcoin designer Satoshi Nakamoto. Miners invest computing power to package blocks and process transaction information, which not only improves the complete functionality of the blockchain ecology, but also forms a moat of Bitcoin to resist computing attacks. If there is no computing power to protect the smooth operation of the blockchain, it can be said that the framework system of Bitcoin has long been defeated, such as BTG, due to too little computing power was successfully attacked by 51% computing power, after which BTG is basically in a state of suspension. So Bitcoin has been able to run smoothly for 10 years, thanks to miners. Therefore, the coins under the POW mechanism hope to attract enough computing power to protect the smooth operation of the block.
Do miners like block congestion?
Miners' income source is fee + block reward, in the period of extreme shortage of trading volume in the early days of Bitcoin, but also the period of Bitcoin's highest block reward, the early miners are equivalent to 50 bitcoin per block + few fees, it can be said that early miners do not rely on transaction fees to eat. As Bitcoin has matured, it has evolved from a few transactions in a single block in its early days - each block is packed with transactions, the network is congested, and the volume of transactions has increased, which naturally generates more fees. When the average block size reached 95% of the maximum, the memory pool began to swell, and users began to raise fees, hoping to get miners to write their transactions to the next block as quickly as possible without experiencing delays, and eventually fees began to skyrocket.
Before 2016, the daily income of miners was about 50 to 60 BTC, after which the daily transaction fee income of miners increased significantly to 250 BTC, and the transaction fee of Bitcoin is rising by a considerable margin.
For short-term miners, it is natural to hope that the block cap is as small as possible, limiting the transaction space, and it is best to make the average block capacity is always greater than 95%, so that the fee competition will become more and more intense. In the short term, the best block capacity is "congestion while ensuring a small capacity"; The long-term miners hope to improve the trading capacity as much as possible, so that the trading volume will increase significantly, and earn fees within a reasonable range.
BCH route - Trading volume is the life of the miner
On August 1, 2017, another version of Bitcoin, promoted by another group of big block backers and developers, was officially launched, named Bitcoin Cash (BCH). BCH believes that Bitcoin should have a larger block cap to handle more transactions and improve transaction throughput, while maintaining a low average fee to meet user transaction needs to the greatest extent. So the initial BCH was set to an 8MB block cap and the isolation witness was abandoned. Since its operation, it has developed steadily for 1 and a half years, and after two hard fork upgrades to gradually adjust the block cap and transaction performance, BCH has proved the effectiveness of solving transaction congestion by increasing the block cap.
The route of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is actually the development route planned by the original white paper, gradually increasing the block ceiling according to the hardware and demand, as far as possible not to let the main chain in a congested state, and maximize the user experience.Large blocks can solve the problem of transaction congestion. Although the transaction fee of a single transaction is reduced, if the transaction volume is increased, then even if the inflated fee of 95% of the average block capacity cannot be reached, the overall income of the increased transaction volume is not comparable to the high fee of a few transactions. For example, now BCH has reached 32MB, while BTC is still 1MB, BTC theoretically processes 7 transactions per second, while BCH theoretically can process up to 224 transactions, assuming that BTC is fully loaded and BCH has only 50% block capacity, then only 7 high fees can be compared with 112 parity fees?
At present, miners' concern about large blocks is about the level of hardware, and increasing the block ceiling naturally puts higher requirements on mining equipment when miners deal with large blocks, which is also the biggest reason for short-sighted miners to oppose large blocks; At the same time, large blocks also increase the block rate, waste the time and resources of miners, and put forward higher requirements for the storage space of full nodes. According to the upgrading direction of BCH this year, when the current trading volume did not break out, the developers are trying to stabilize the block ceiling, the current 32MB block ceiling has been stable for more than a year, and it seems that the development team has no plan to further increase the block ceiling in the short term, according to Moore's Law, In the future, raising the block limit again will inevitably keep up with the development of the hardware level. In response to the problem of isolated block rate, the BCH community also proposed to use small difficulty blocks (weak blocks) to create subchains to connect and match complete difficulty blocks (strong blocks), effectively reducing the risk of isolated blocks.
With the continuous halving of block rewards, it will be reduced to 6.25BTC per block in 2020, and the main income of miners in the future will still be transaction fees. While BCH faces a multi-billion market in the future, miners will have a blowout growth, and it can be expected that the probability of BCH miners and computing power will rise all the way.
BTC Route - Miners are just my main chain attendants
BTC has taken a very different route, choosing to continue to maintain the 1MB block cap, and in the face of transaction demand they believe that the two-layer network is the solution. Just recently, the Lightning network that they have high hopes for recently broke the 700BTC trading mark, and the initial promotion has made certain progress, then the lightning network is friendly to miners?
Lightning network is a way of trading outside the main chain, the two sides of the transaction will be locked in their own lightning node, after opening the lightning channel, the two sides can be unlimited transactions in the channel, only when the channel is closed in the main chain for a settlement. This forms the side chain trading volume is very large, and the main chain becomes a settlement layer with very low trading volume, no matter how many transactions are carried out, only miners have a chance to appear at the settlement, and the fee income is greatly reduced. Lightning network has broken the consistent pattern of Bitcoin ecology, miners are gradually marginalized in the BTC world, with the gradual reduction of block rewards, miners are more and more reluctant to mine in BTC, the future of BTC miners and computing power probability will be all the way down.Perhaps some people think that the central nodes of the lightning network are the miners of the new era, and indeed these central nodes serve as the task of transacting transactions, and can also collect fees. However, the economic model of lightning network has always been controversial, the intermediary node must be monopolistic, and only one super node can win, that is, the so-called new era miner is only an individual or company, and cannot form an industry at all, because lightning network is a winner-takes-all business behavior, the stronger the strong, the weaker die out. Such a situation is economically most efficient.
Finally, BTC is also facing a computing crisis, and BTC's unfriendliness to miners may drive out a large number of miners, which will eventually lead to the reduction of the computing power of the main chain, which is an urgent problem for BTC to solve under the POW mechanism. The expelled miners may eventually move to BCH.