But how much money does it need to make to really become a symbol of theaters returning?
First up, just an idea of how much the box office has surfaced post COVID.
Black Widow
380 million
Shang Chi
432 million
Eternals
396 million
Those are the three marvel movies to come out post COVID and while those seem like big numbers, here’s some numbers prior.
Captain Marvel 2019
1.1 billion
Avengers Endgame
2.8 billion
Spider-Man Far From Home
1.1 billion
Obviously Avengers & Spider-Man were bigger names over Shang Chi & Eternals, but Black Widow was obviously a bigger name over Captain Marvel, which made 700 million dollars more.
In fact, the last Marvel movie to make under 500 million dollars was the first Thor movie, which came out in 2011.
Since that point, Marvel spent a decade building a machine that was pumping out billion dollar movie after billion dollar movie.
Until the entertainment industry caught COVID.
Now three titles which would have all made over 700 million easily are getting some of the worst box office returns ever for that world.
Spider-Man No Way Home is different though.
- First Marvel sequel post COVID.
- Biggest named hero by far.
- Mega cast with Tom Holland, Zendaya, Alfred Molina, Willem Dafoe, Benedict Cumberbatch & two other guys I won’t mention for spoilers.
If this was coming out in a COVID free world, it’d likely make not only a billion dollars, but probably over 1.5b.
It likely won’t pull that off now, but exactly how much would it need to make it be considered a hit?
Looking at previous Spider-Man movies an idea?
The first Spider-Man made 827 million in 2002, which would be about 1.2 billion today.
The second made less at 789 million.
Third and final made 894 million in 2007 money, which would be over 1 billion dollar.
The original trilogy all produced about a billion dollars in todays money or more.
Next up, the reboot duo with Andrew Garfield in the lead.
The Amazing Spider-Man, which came out in 2012 made 758 million.
The 2014 sequel made 709 million, which is the lowest grossing live action Spider-Man movie not even factoring in inflation.
After that, the Tom Holland movies.
Spider-Man Homecoming made 880 million in 2017.
Spider-Man Far From Home did what no other Spider-Man did, which was make more money for the second film over the first, pulling in 1.1 billion.
That likely had a little bit of a spillover effect from Avengers Endgame, but would have still likely broken a billion.
Final thing to do is look at the release month of December.
Highest grossing movie is Star Wars episode 7, at 2 billion dollars.
After that, it’s Titanic.
Amusing thing is no Marvel movie has actually come out in theaters during December previously, so it’s kind of hard to judge on what to expect.
Seeing how Jumanji 2017 is the sixth highest grossing December movie at 800 million and only one which wasn’t Titanic or a Star Wars movie, I think the goal for No Way Home would be to beat that.
So best way to look at this as a sign for theaters holding post COVID success.
Under 800 million
The industry is still coughing.
800m-1 billion
Could have done better, but succeeded as it’s own movie.
If it breaks 1.2 billion and becomes the highest grossing Spider-Man movie in a December release, the box office is officially back.
But if this doesn’t break over 600m, I’d not only call it a failure, I’d expect movies into 2022 get dual releases with streaming and even some movies postponed.
Venom 2 which is technically Spider-Man related came out in fall and made 493 million.
The first made 853 million.
While neither of those were particularly great movies and review wise, this is off to a better start, Spider-Man could still flop.
Good luck to the movie as probably the most important film to decide the future of an industry.