Who Suffers Most from EU Talk Deadlock? Brussels Does!

Round Five of talks have concluded, making the discussion of the severance ties between the UK and the European Union more akin to a boxing match as opposed to civilised negotiation. The damaging back and forth is not damaging for the UK as many in the media seem to propagate, in fact, the EU will suffer from its intransigence and arguably already has begun to do so.

With the Catalan Independence debacle, added to Brexit and the unwillingness of Poland to accept migrants (with Denmark closing their borders to migrants too) Brussels have two options: capitulate or double-down. Now with their backs are up against the wall, giving in to all of Britain's demands were unthinkable from June 24th last year and remain so. Surrendering any ground makes Brussels, Barnier, and co. appear weak; they cannot afford to give other nations ideas, primarily since a backlash against ever increasing unity mounts across Europe. Rising support for Geert Wilders in The Netherlands, increasing support for Marine Le Pen, the change to the Italian constitution, the AfD in Germany and now Catalan Independence, has flooded the continent off the back of Brexit. Not to mention the displeasure voiced by Poland and Hungary for Germany censuring the two nations over their reluctance to flood either country with migrants, the EU have really allowed themselves to get caught between a rock and a hard place.

Capitulation will see other nations wanting things a little easier, perhaps even nations like Norway and Switzerland will want to renogiatate their deals. But seen as too punitive will also fuel the fire of Eurosceptics on the continent, as will foolish fearmongering, as anyone not listening to the media jibes knows that things haven't been chaotic in the UK since the referendum, despite idiocy from politicians supposedly championing and securing our departure. Ridiculous notions such as those from Chancellor Philip Hammond embody this stupidity when he said that all flights from Britain to Europe might get grounded on March 29th 2019, the day Brexit becomes official. A warning such as that from Britain's second most senior politician is another Millennium Bug warning that won't come to pass because the last time I checked, a nation's Passports still superseded the EU (for now - and please note, Philip Hammond studied at Oxford... ).

Such scaremongering Spain uses now against Catalonia, who, like Britain in relation to Brussels, pays a disproportinate amount to Madrid compared to what it gets in return. So be it Brussels or Madrid, neither wants to lose that cushy set up, although both are too fixed in the precise methods of their own protection that it's become a prison. No one thought Article 50 would ever triggered, exemplary of their Machiavellian seen-as-democratic-despite-not-being-democratic mindset. Meanwhile, Juncker, Barnier et al. overlooked that those disproportinately paying for the EU while getting an unfair dividend back soon grow tired of this raw deal, on top of being required to take the rough with the smooth of being in a 28-nation superstate where anyone on that continent can pass through it unimpeded (now from beyond Europe too).

Pressure keeps mounting regarding the possibility of a "no-deal" impasse when the two years of talk cease and the UK departs Europe, with doomsayers bemoaning Britain's descent into chaos if no deal is reached. However, the opposite is in fact the case, the world and the new markets arising will see an EU that is slow to move, inflexible and unwilling to adapt to a changing world around them, witnessed by a planet that has moved on from a European trade-cum-state born in the Cold War era.