China's ICO ban: How Far Will The Crypto Market Drop?

Hello dear friends!

As of now the crypto market is down from 177 to 138 billion in market cap.

How low can it go?

In my analysis I look at moments of fear, which usually causes most market declines. Sinds March 2017 the market has had two periods of fear:

• The Bitcoin fork uncertainty
• The Bitcoin cash announcement

The orange line represents the median.

If we only look at the graph we can say:

• The decline was bound to happen. (The first decline was on 2 September while the second drop when China's ICO ban was announced came 2 days later)
• The line is still far above the median, thus it could fall more

The impact of the ICO ban news on the mind of investors

This is the first major government interference on the crypto space.

It is shocking that the ban was made by China, who has had the reputation to be very supportive of the relative new booming technology.

Now that China has made a move, investors have a good reason to think that more governments are going to move soon. Especially for the reasons the Chinese government acted upon.

Ethereum hard fork: Metropolis

The Ethereum hard fork is also on its way, which will add to the uncertainty. It is expected to be activated at the end of September

The effect of the split will most likely not be as the fear for the bitcoin fork, because Ethereum is one third in market capitalization of Bitcoin. The fork probably will cause a Bitcoin Cash-like drop.

Conclusion

It looks there will be a continuation of the stagnation. Taking the upcoming Ethereum hardfork in consideration, I see little reason for the crypto market to go up untill the end of September. As it is now, we could see that the market reaching the median(around 110) and it might even go below it.

I think the downward trend will depend on the type of actions of other governments. The ban may be wake up call for other governments to regulate the ICOs. If that happens it will most likely have a possitive effect in the long term for the crypto market.

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If you liked my analysis don't forget to follow me! I will post more of these ;)

I am a blessed crypto investor sinds the start of the boom.

This is my story if you are interested :P (there is a part about the the gains I have made)

My goal is to help newcomers (investors) of the crypto space.

My next article will be about the crypto coins which could go above 500% after this down trend.

Feedback and upvotes are appreciated :)

Lots of love,
Future Thinker