WASHINGTON – Democrats were forecast to win big on Election Day. But in congressional races across the country, they saw loss after loss even as President-election Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in the White House race.
At least 10 Democratic incumbents fell to Republicans in the House, though the party clung on to control of the chamber. Aspirations to take the Senate majority seemed to wither as race after race was called for Republicans – even in states where Democrats polled significantly higher than incumbents.
Democrats have promised methodical after-action reports to examine what went wrong and how to how to learn from it. But the party is still in the midst of a battle over the Senate with the majority hanging in the balance – all coming down to Georgia and two runoff races on Jan. 5.
While Democrats are still licking their wounds from the Nov. 3 Election Day, experts say the party will need to make changes and resist making some of the same errors in hopes of claiming victory in the state. Flipping the seats held by incumbent Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler will be an uphill battle for Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, but a victory will give Democrats the power to pass Biden’s legislative agenda.
"You rarely get a second chance in politics but Democrats have gotten one in Georgia," said Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist and former senior aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. Manley pointed to Biden’s ability to flip the state blue this year for the first time since 1992.
"It’s definitely doable for us. But I think we as a party have to be cautious and resist some of worst urges," he said.
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Struggle with economy, defending against GOP attacks
A host of issues divided Americans as they voted by mail and at the ballot box. Healthcare, the coronavirus pandemic, racial justice were all rated as the key issues that decided people's vote.
But one issue at top of the list in many exit polls seemed to trouble Democrats: the economy.
The split among Republican and Democratic voters seemed to rest on a choice between getting a handle on the coronavirus pandemic or reopening efforts to help rescue the economy.
Sen. Joe Manchin, one of the few red-state Democrats still in Congress, said the split displayed a clear issue the party needs to address.
“When you don't have a message on the economy, (voters) believe that that (Democratic) brand basically is more concerned and interested in people that don't work or won't work, more so than the people that do work and will work," the West Virginia Democrat said. "There's a problem.”
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Democratic Senate candidates Raphael Warnock, left, and Jon Ossoff at a campaign rally in Marietta, Ga., on Nov. 15, 2020.
But while the party will have several years before the next election battle, Democrats in Georgia are already in the middle of campaigning, with only weeks until the runoff races. Experts argue shifts in messaging simply won’t be able to move voters this late in the race.
"I think it’s too late in the game for a policy shift," Manley said.
Democratic strategists across the board and in the state say the focus on healthcare and beating the coronavirus pandemic was largely successful, but candidates had issues fending off GOP attacks focusing on socialism and the defund the police movement, attacks that have been blamed for some Democrats' losses.
"Republicans have worked very hard to tar these slogans," said Danny Barefoot, a Democratic strategist, admitting that Democrats need to learn from the struggles they saw in this cycle. "We have a branding problem."
He said Ossoff and Warnock should veer away from "dabbling in these issues," but should make clear where they stand.
While messaging on socialism has been blamed for some losses, including within the Hispanic communities of South Florida, it might not be as big of an issue in Georgia, Barefoot said.
"Both of these candidates need to ignore the noise. They understand their communities and what voters are hoping to see from them," he added.
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In this July 15 file photo Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., puts on a face mask as she walks with Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., right, at UPS Hapeville Airport Hub in Atlanta.
Barefoot said in a post-election focus group he conducted, many voters were weary that the country could again impose strict mandates as COVID-19 cases rise. "I think we really missed the COVID fatigue," he explained. "I think Trump’s reopening message resonated more than we thought."
With cases rising and some communities already issuing restrictions that force businesses to close and residents to stay home again, that is likely to weigh heavily on voters’ minds.
"There’s a middle ground approach here on being empathetic, being worried about the economy and continuing to live amid the pandemic," Barefoot said. "There’s a way to safely live your life and not isolate at home."
Ground efforts, money and GOP's conflicting message
Many have also attributed Democratic losses on Election Day to a lack of ground game. As COVID-19 ravaged the country and continued to spread, campaigns had to shift to a more digitally focused operation than ever before.
Most restrained from holding in-person events or having campaign workers knock on doors, key aspects that help turn out voters. As the pandemic wore on, Republicans were quicker to restart holding typical events. President Donald Trump led the way with packed rallies, not mandating face masks or social distancing.
Trump appeared in Georgia Saturday to rally for Loeffler and Perdue, urging voters to cast their ballots for the Republicans, railing against election integrity and highlighting what is at stake with the two races.
More:Biden plans to campaign in Georgia for Senate candidates
"This election is control of the U.S. Senate and that really means control of this country,” Trump said. "The voters of Georgia will determine which party runs every committee, writes every piece of legislation, controls every single taxpayer dollar."
Democrats have been resistant to holding such large in-person events over safety concerns amid the pandemic but have focused on virtual rallies and drive-in events where voters can stay in their cars. Biden said he plans to campaign in the state for the Senate race, though it’s unclear whether he will do so virtually or in-person.
Democrats are keenly aware of the dynamics in the state that allowed Biden to win, including shifts in the suburbs and know the keys to victory are turning out more voters and energizing African Americans in the state. Democrats and liberal groups have invested millions into the race, allowing Democrats to hire more staff and recruit more volunteers for a wide on-the ground organization, which includes more voter calls and texts.
"Up until now, the reality is we weren’t knocking on doors or really doing a ton of connecting with voters," said Stefan Turkheimer, a Democratic strategist in Georgia. "The No. 1 question is how do you turn out people that previously turned out for you and a strong ground game is key to that."
'They have not earned your vote':Trump allies urge Georgia Republicans to sit out Senate runoffs
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