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ON RAFIK HARIRI, LEBANON AND THE MIDDLE EAST
The whole of the Middle East is on edge right now and it seems a few more kegs of gunpowder are about to be thrown into the mix.
Rafik Hariri resigned about two weeks ago shortly after he arrived Riyadh claiming his life was in danger, while Hezbollah claims the Prime Minister was kidnapped by Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis shot down a ballistic missile fired from Yemen at Riyadh, as they have largely subdued the Houthis within that territory they believe that attack was sponsored by Hezbollah but in an interesting twist have labelled that near strike an "act of war" by Lebanon.
It is one thing to pin Houthi strikes on Hezbollah, it is yet another to blame Lebanon for the Houthi strikes you pinned on Hezbollah.
You see the Saudis are playing a game. They have been playing this morbid game with Iran for a long time. The Saudis head the global Sunni bloc of Islam while the Iranians head the Shia bloc, and this turf war is for supremacy in the Middle East.
Lebanon is the most ethnically diverse country in the Middle East. 54% of it's population is Muslim and 40% Christian while Druze, Jews, and Baha'i make up the rest. Half of the Muslim population is Sunni and the other half is Shia.
The Shia pull more weight in the general scheme of things.
Proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran continue throughout the region and this is what the conflict in Yemen is all about. This battle for supremacy has virtually destroyed the entire country of Yemen and turned it into a failed state. But it doesn't seem like it will stop there.
Lebanon seems to be next in line.
Iran's major allies are the Alawite (branch of Shia) controlled Syria and Shia Hezbollah.
What cost the one time Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri's dad (Saad Hariri) his life was the way Hezbollah was handled, and now it might cost the son his as well.
Hezbollah is no longer a non-state actor, it lost that tag the moment it entered mainstream politics in Lebanon and developed a political wing that morphed into a party. By accusing Lebanon of an act of war Saudi Arabia is putting pressure on the citizens of Lebanon to reject the Shia control and is indirectly fanning the flames of sectarianism.
The Saudi strategy seems to be to get all Iranian allies in the region to implode one by one.
This dangerous game might just end up causing intense collateral damage and something that will engulf the whole region in more ways than one.
Interesting times we live in.