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This Chart shows how important the oil price is for inflation

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• Less than two years ago, Europe threatened to be confronted with the 'deflation ghost'. An anxiety situation where prices fall instead of rising. In the end, the European central bank managed to avoid the deflation in time by means of its stimulus policy. The oil price has also played an important role in this.

• There are generally two ways to measure inflation. First of all we have the normal inflation position and secondly we also have the so-called 'core inflation'. This core inflation does not take into account increased food and energy prices. According to various economists, it is best to look at core inflation to determine the real state of the economy.

Core inflation shows the real health of the economy

 

• At present, core inflation is significantly lower than normal inflation rates in most countries. And this is not surprising, because the normal inflation position does take into account the prices for food and energy. And it is precisely the energy prices that have risen sharply in recent months as a result of the rising oil price.

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• The chart above from CNBC shows that there is a strong correlation between the inflation expectations (and thus also the inflation position itself) and the oil price. Normal inflation rates may be around 2% in the Americas and Europe, but the central banks would prefer to see core inflation reaching 2%.

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