Are We On The Edge of The Biggest Mega Tsunami In History

The legend of Pele is alive and active within Hawaiian culture. Pele is the Goddess of Volcanoes and makes her home within the Kilauea Volcano. It is said that the powers of Tūtū Pele should never be ignored; those who choose to disrespect the powerful Goddess will be forced to suffer the consequences of her wrath and vengeance. Even for those who do not believe in the deification of the Kilauea Volcano, it would be incredibly ignorant and foolish to deny the power that resides within the depths of the volcano.

image credit herb kane

On April 30th, 2018 the island started to experience an increase of seismic activity when the floor of the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō crater collapsed. On May 3rd,2018 a new fissure opened on the island soon after an earthquake with a magnitude 5 was reported. The seismic and volcanic activity has steadily progressed over the past two weeks with the development of 16 active fissures. The lava is continually flowing in the Lalani Estates subdivision and the eastern side of the volcanic rift is considered highly active.

image from energy.hawaii.gov
During the past 2 weeks the Island has experienced several hundreds of earthquakes. On May 4th, 2018 there was an earthquake that was reported as being a magnitude 6.9. This is the strongest earthquake to rumble the island in 43 years. Soon after this quake, the shore lines of some of the beaches were filmed receding, yet no Tsunami warning has been issued. For those who are unaware, massive Island earthquakes can trigger Tsunamis. When the shoreline recedes after an earthquake it is often considered a tell-tale sign that a tsunami may be developing.

A complete and up-to date chronology of the events happening in Hawaii can be found here: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/file_mngr/file-179/Chronology%20of%20events%202018.pdf

A video of the bay at Punalu’u black sand beach being calmly vacated as the shoreline receded can be viewed here:

In 2004 Indonesia experienced an earthquake between the richter scale of 9.1–9.3 which triggered a massive tsunami. This incident took the lives of over 240,000 people .It appears that the impact of the tsunami occurred in under 2 1/2 hours of the earthquake.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has created the following animated film which demonstrates the seismic activity on the island and the subsequent volcanic eruptions that followed:

For those who are unfamiliar with the volcanic history of the Hawaiian Islands, it’s crucial to note that the island is home to 5 volcanoes. Kilauea volcano is considered to be one of the most active volcanoes in the entire world. Mauna Loa also lives on the Island, this volcano is often referred to as the “Sleeping Giant,” although it is not dormant, it has been several decades since this volcano showed any activity. Mauna Loa is considered the largest living volcano in the entire world and is only trumped in size by Tamu Massif which is an extinct volcano. Mauna Loa are Kilauea are believed to be the only Hawaiian volcanoes that are still being actively fed on a large scale from magma chambers below.

image obtained from oncirculation.com

image of Mauna Loa obtained from wikipedia

The center of the Kilauea volcano is called the Halema’uma’u Crater which is the home to an active lava lake.The lava lake is essentially comprised of active molten lava. In March 2008 the Halema’uma’u Crater began erupting, an event that is still ongoing. Over the course of 10 years, there has been plenty of activity reported from within the crater. The lava lake has exhibited on going fluctuations and has grown to an estimated 520 feet in diameter. During this time, the area has experienced several small explosions and persistent gas plumes which produce sulfur dioxide and create “Vog.”

image obtained from TheStar.com
As more fissures open up on the island it relieves the pressure from within the lava lake. As of May 9th, the lava lake levels began draining. If the lava lake drains below the underground water table, the moisture meeting with the hot maga could create a massive amount of steam. As of May 10th the volcano national park officially closed to the public and reported that the inner walls of the lava lake had already begun collapsing in on itself. As the rocky walls collapse in on the lake, it can create a “dam”. The steam that will be created if the lava meets the water will begin to pressurize against the dam and can eventually create an explosion.

image from USGS

image obtained from dutchsinse
During the volcanic eruption that occurred on the island in the 1920’s there were boulders that weighed 8 tons that were shot into the sky and flung up to a mile away from the site.

Geologists recently reported that rock samples obtained from the current lava flow have lot of chemical similarities compared to the 1955 eruption. It has been hypothesized that the current lava flow may have been stored within a rift zone for the past 63 years. This would have allowed the lava to cool slightly which could potentially explain why the flow has been slightly “sluggish”. There is a concern that there is hotter, younger and more expansive magma underneath the current flow of a lava which could be traveling down slope of the Kilauea volcano. The 1955 eruption lasted 3 months before coming to an abrupt stop. During this eruption there were 24 volcanic vents that opened up.

image obtained from volcanoes.usgs.gov
The idea of an underground river of magma flowing in unison to the current flow of lava which has consumed 26 homes within the Lelani subdivision is quite concerning. Especially when the underground PGV wells are factored into the equation. Even the Governor has expressed concerns about the underground wells despite PGV stating they officially closed the wells off with “cinder.” However a recent news article states that Hawaiiam civil defense remains on alert about the situation and has expressed concerns about the wells being compromised. It was reported that the underground wells are currently being filled with water in hopes to deter any explosions. The State is allegedly working with experts from California in hopes to gain insight on how to properly seal the wells. This indicates that PGV has not properly followed the 2016 EPA requests to have an evacuation protocol established in the event of “worse senario.”

It is important to note that when the PGV facility is properly operating, they inject the underground wells with a highly volatile and flammable “caustic soda.” The ingredients of the caustic soda are: hydrogen sulfide, lead, nickel, chromium, and mercury. Hydrogen Sulfide is flammable and can be explosive when combined with oxygen mixtures of between 4% and 45% by volume. The facility has also admitted to losing between 40–100 gallons per day of flammable materials. It is currently unknown how much, if any, of the soil and environment surrounding the underground wells and PGV facility have been inoculated with flammable materials. Volcanic rock is highly porous and its possible that the flammable chemicals could linger within the rock. However, basic science proves to us that flammable materials can ignite when it comes in contact with lava. The heat produced from lava is 20x hotter than the flash point of pentane, the main chemicals that PGV relies on in order to operate the facility.

(above image was obtained from hawaii tribue harold)

If there were to be an explosion in relation to the PGV facility, it could create an unprecedented explosion that could have major repercussions which could include the release of highly toxic fumes into the atmosphere and environment. It has also been suggested that an explosion in relation to PGV and the underground wells could essentially create a ripple effect of seismic activity. During volcanic activity, when the ground begins to tremble and shake, it can temporarily disrupt the flow of lava and push it into different areas.

(the above image was obtained from bigislandadventurenews)
UC Berkley recently published an article called “A Slow Emergency and Sudden Slump.” The article discusses the Hilina Slump which is located on the southern flank of the Kilauea Volcano. The Hilina Slump has been sliding sea-ward at a rate of 10 cm per year. It is believed that the Hilina Slump has the potential to break away at a fast rate in the event of a submarine landslide. Underwater landslides can be triggered by earthquakes, landslides and rock slides, it would ultimately take an earthquake of a magnitude 9 or higher to cause such an event. It is further believed that in the event that the Hilina Slump does break away from the island, it could trigger a mega-tsunami . An event like this hasn’t occurred on earth in over 110,000 years. A mega-tsunami could trigger waves as high as 1600 feet. Though it is important to note that in recent undersea observations, there has been a formation of a “buttress” at the front of the Hilina Slump, which could help create extra support in preventing catastrophic detachment.

This above image that has been obtained from the Volcano Observatory indicated that after the 6.9 richter earthquake, the Hilina Slump (in Hawaiian this area is known as a “Pila”) moved a substantial 2+feet. In the past, there have been stronger earthquakes that have pushed the Hilina Slump closer to the ocean. In 1975 there was a 7.2 magnitude earthquake that moved the Hilina Slump a massive 11 feet. If the Hilina were to break off, it could have massive repercussions on the island. Aside from the mega-tsunamia that could be triggered, it is estimated that 10% of the island could be impacted from the detachment of the Pila.

(note I do not take credit for this diagram, if you created this image please let me know so I can give credit, I found it on pinterest)

Meanwhile, Gov. Ige of Hawaii has admitted that the State is not prepared to handle an entire evacuation of the Hilo side of the Island. It is evident that PGV along with the State and Federal Government are not prepared for the “worst case scenario” which could include a ripple of cataclysmic events such as a PGV explosion, followed by the lava lake eruption, and the Hilina Slump breaking off into the ocean which could trigger a mega-tsunami.

In the past, governments from around the world have attempted to control volcanic explosions and flowing lava. In fact, in 1935 the US Military bombed Mauna Loa during a volcanic eruption which had a reported lava flow moving at 1 mile per day towards Hilo. This turned out to be a complete failure. Although the parts of the volcano where the bombs impacted did slow down, ultimately the craters were filled with lava and the flow was never fully interrupted. The city of Hilo was saved when the volcano simply stopped erupting. Although, the Air-force later released statements that they believed with “newer and better bombs” they could have a better impact at stopping lava flow. The concept of bombing an active volcano in order to stop the flow of lava seems like a complete waste of resources,time, and money.

image obtained from spacebattles.com

image obtained from spacebattles.com
There have been several other attempts at stopping lava flow. One of the more notable attempts was conducted by Iceland. In 1973 the country began shooting water canons supplied with frigid cold ocean waters. The water cannon attack against the lava flow lasted for 3 long months. This basically created a large amount of steam as the lava was cooled. Eventually the lava flow slowed and redirected away from a nearby town.
There have been other reports of building concrete walls to act as a barrier has helped prevent complete loss during volcanic eruptions. The general belief found within the geologist community is the underlying belief that lava diversion is basically a losing battle. It may allow for more time to save a certain area from lava, but ultimately it is up to the volcano to stop the flow of lava. Attempting to control lava flow is in many ways an attempt at ‘“Playing God.”

image credit herb kane
Tutu Pele is the true Goddess of Volcanoes. She is powerful and should not be disrespected. When Pele erupts, it’s best to stay out of her way and let her do her thang. I do not believe that there should be any military involvement in attempting to stop or sedate the powers of Pele. With the slow and steady developments unfolding on Hawaii, I believe that there is still plenty of time for the community to develop a proper evacuation plan. However, I also believe the current status of the Island in regards to the volcanic activity exposes the lack of State and Federal emergency management. How is it ethically possible that the State has no serious evacuation plans on an Island that has 5 volcanos? This is a question that I believe needs to be fully looked into during the upcoming election time.

Image credit herb kane