The White Flag of Surrender is being raised all across the landscape as the Juggernaut of NewSteem rolls forward with almost religious zeal. The sustained pressure on the customers of the Vote Sellers has been hurting their profit margins to a significant extent. One by one the Vote Sellers have been realising that the defence of their position as paid promoters in the attention economy is untenable in such a hostile environment. They are yielding to the NewSteem onslaught and desperately trying to rework their business models lest they fade into obscurity.
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This probably doesn’t come as any surprise to anyone who has been regularly reading my blog. It was over a month ago that I suggested the Vote Sellers profit margins were in the crosshairs when I wrote my piece Shots Fired : NewSteem Launches Blitzkreig on Trending Battlefield I did save my queries from that post, so if you don’t want to take my word for it, the updated charts below tell the story.
Using the same methodology as before I’ve extended the data series and you can clearly see that the Vote Selling income of the Bid Bots has almost flat-lined. Nearly all of them are over 90% down and that has got to hurt!
Similarly the Instant Vote Sellers have continued to be hit pretty hard too. One of them saw the writing on the wall early and abandoned ship, while two of the others seem to be faring only slightly better than the Bid Bots. I did suggest that these services might be a little bit more robust in the hostile environment due to using a slightly different voting model and that does appear to be the case, but the difference is only marginal.
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A little bit surprising is that the yields on leased Steem Power are still holding up. While there has been a predictable drop in yields since my last update it’s only fallen from an average of about 18% to 16% in the last month. The lease market would have to be a VERY attractive option for investors who are trying to maintain an ROI in the wake of the Vote Sellers capitulation. One added benefit of using the SP Lease Market would be that investors could be supporting ACTUAL Steemians and Projects that add value to the ecosystem while still getting their ROI….
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So is it time to celebrate? Not yet, I think. It is good to see that these Vote Selling Maximisers have been torn down, but what has been the cost? There are a lot of genuine content producers who have been getting upset as they get caught in the crossfire. I started Resteeming them but there has just been too many. Many were perhaps caught unaware and maybe many others simply did not understand the consequences of The War To End All Wars that was launched after Hard Fork 21. Many of the shock troops who have formed into the Vanguard of NewSteem have been using auto-downvotes and hitting even quality content producers without remorse nor explanation. As much as we hear the talk about a Promised Land where Genuine Manual Curation holds up those adding value to the ecosystem with great content – we’re not seeing it just yet. In fact I was quite dismayed to see one of the new curation projects being buried under retaliation flags that have been left totally unchecked by NewSteem.
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It’s all well and good to tear down a system that isn’t working and the demise of the Vote Sellers has been satisfying to watch, but what will replace them? The Vote Sellers have been scrambling since the Hard Fork trying to appease NewSteem by doing things like donating to the Steem.DAO, ensuring Vote Buyers were not getting profitable votes, and then balancing their business with some “manual curation”. I am not convinced. These guys are Maximisers and as I’ve said before, they will find a new way to game the system even if means their Vote Selling is just driven underground. NewSteem may have shifted the goalposts a bit, but we haven’t reached the Promised Land yet and a lot of genuine Content Creators are suffering as they now neither have an effective method to promote, nor effective curation systems to support them. Meanwhile, the value of STEEM continues to drop....
The main unanswered question in this is "Why the hell would anyone buy Steem and Power up?" (and we are also still waiting for an answer on how converting AFIT into steem is different to converting something like SPORTS into steem by using those upvotes.)
The main selling point of #newsteem is to buy SP, take hours to browse through, let's be honest', mostly garbage content to upvote it hoping to get back some good curation rewards while it's more profitable and way more time-efficient to auto-upvote the ones you know will get a lot of upvotes in the first place. The ones on top also have the biggest free downvotes which directly increases the value of their own posts even more.
Don't get me wrong, I love what this blockchain can potentially do but the economic incentives are still completely broken probably even more than ever now.
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Incorrect. When a lot of people start autovoting the same author, they undermine each other's curation rewards. The best curation rewards will be reaped by manually curating and finding the good stuff that is yet to be discovered by other curators. Auto-voting more efficient for sure, but not the most profit you can achieve with your stake.
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It may not be more profitable to auto-upvote, but as @costanza says - it will be more time efficient. If you're talking about reward for effort then that will be the way to go for the big stakeholders and indeed it looks like it might be going that way.
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my thing has always been, How do you get your head above water in the Steemverse? Even people I follow I have a hard time getting served their best content. What is a way I can get served cool and new content from people that I haven’t seen before?
Posted using Partiko iOS
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Sorting through ordinary content to find the hidden gems just seems to be part of the Steemverse deal I think. I sometimes browse by tag and use the trending/hot feature at the same time to see if anything good shows up but it's tough to find quality new content providers in the current climate.
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Attacking the most public abuses just shifts the behaviour underground.
"If this address receives 3 EOS, I'll fall in love with your posts for a month"
It does add a certain overhead; but it also means innocents get caught in the crossfire as a battle becomes a witch-hunt.
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This is the most cynical comment I've seen from you @mattclarke - though I do totally agree!
I think the witch-hunt stage of this conflict is probably just around the corner. The NewSteem Vanguard will probably run out of soft and high profile targets soon, and then where will they turn?
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Probably to post that are 5 cents or lower as they must be shit posts.. Then when they are gone move on to 10 cent posts, then 20 cent posts
Just think all you have is high content posts and nobody to read and vote for them
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I reckon the fact that leasing prices haven't crashed reveals that manual curation is merely a euphemism for off chain transactions. The rampaging horde of autoflaggers will not simply vanish either. The downvote pool burns in their pockets, and they've had a taste of blood. I shudder to think of the consequences to any stake that is hereafter shown to be posturing as undertaking organic manual curation and discovered to be accepting payment for it's votes offchain.
Not really. I do hope some folks are looking at transfers out and comparing that to post rewards of authors being curated by former bots. A bit of looking at the big winners of manual curation from former bots is likely to reveal why stake leasing hasn't declined in volume or value.
Call me cynical, but I am.
Thanks!
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This would be a pretty logical explanation for why the lease market is holding up. It is difficult to know for sure if other blockchains are now being used for the transactions. I wouldn't even know where to start looking.
This is actually a bigger concern. If we start seeing content creating dolphins and minnows getting squashed with impunity then it will be a sure sign that the end is near.
This will probably be easier to identify than digging through rival blockchains looking for linkages. If I continue reporting on developments here this is probably where I will look next.
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Great post-Buggs,
I worry about the SP these big bot accounts are powering down and where it's headed. I see curation trials to be the replacement which is much worse than bidding bots. A 200 member curation trial has 1 person using 200 users voting power which is very far away from manual curation.
It has taken me 5ish weeks to finally understand why the leasing market has dropped and why it's not likely to return to 20% ROI. I never factored in greed, lmao.
Since HF21, I have seen an increase in new members to CSB and I have also noticed at least one of the bigger bots is now offering delegation for a daily upvote. Maybe this is the new voting bot model going forward.
Its be a while until newsteem can pop the champagne in celebration of anything
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Thanks mate. I don't think we'll be seeing 20% ROI again, unless we totally turn the ship around and go on another roaring bull run.
I can see the potential for a manual (and genuine) curator with a trail that follows as being a lesser evil. I suspect that auto-votes could become the next big bugbear for the platform though.
It'd be nice if we had a few more curation projects sprouting, but we're getting close to 2 months post-HF21 and I'm just not seeing it.
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@tipu curate 3
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Upvoted 👌
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Thank you @leysa
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Sure vote selling is down..sure bod bots are losing out.. but look at how many fewer transactions on the blockchain.. seems looked everyone who HODLs STEEM is losing out too
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