The speculation of what that deal is going to look like is leading people to comparisons to Josh Allen's six-year, $258 million contract.
It's interesting to me, first of all, because the discussion is comparing my favorite quarterback on my favorite team to the team that plays down the road from me.
What's more, though, if Murray gets a similar deal to Allen, that could say a lot about how rapidly the market can fluctuate in the NFL.
There's no doubt that, as the salary cap continues to grow, so will the player's salaries. Just a few years ago Kirk Cousins' three-year, $85 million deal was considered to be unprecedented. Still, this is only one year removed from Allen's contract being signed.
I'm going to be blunt - Kyler Murray is not and will never be as good as Josh Allen. I'm not saying that Murray sucks. I am saying that I can name about thirteen quarterbacks who are better than he is.
I don't think that the Cardinals' late season woes have been flukes nor entirely attributable to Kliff Kingsbury (although he's another problem). I also don't think that it was just poor game planning that lead to Murray, one of the better rushing quarterbacks in the league, having only three rushing yards in the playoff game.
Murray is small. When I say "small" I don't mean "short." Russell Wilson is short. Drew Brees is short. Murray is small. Being short is a factor being that, if you watch enough of Murray's game film, it becomes clear that he can't see the middle of the field over his lineman. Outside of certain alert reads and college-style play calls that work outside of the numbers, the play just really isn't there for him unless he runs outside of the pocket and the good teams - the teams that make the playoffs - can figure out how to keep him in the pocket. That leads to Murray taking a lot of hits. He's too small to sustain the hits that come with the game to keep playing at a high level all season.
Yeah, Allen takes a lot of hits - he's also 6'5" and 243lbs and already talking about how he has to take fewer hits. Allen can truck a linebacker in the middle of the field from time to time when needed. Murray is too small to even try it.
Also, keep in mind that by the time Allen got his deal, he had made two playoff appearances and taken the Bills to a conference championship. Murray has played in one playoff game and, frankly, he was awful.
I know that the Deshaun Watson deal is a shock to the market. It's also a dumb decision on the part of the Browns. $230 million fully guaranteed to a dude with what is now 26 pending lawsuits for sexual misconduct who may not even play for the next season or two? That sounds like a bad choice to me.
Now the Watson deal is probably going to serve as a baseline for superstar quarterbacks. I wouldn't be surprised if Lamar Jackson goes into negotiations and says, "Let's start with what Watson got and go from there." Murray isn't the talent that Watson or Jackson are either; but, given context, he has an argument within this market shock for a contract like Watson's - he doesn't have and lawsuits pending.
The fact still remains that the final details of this deal, assuming one will be made, will say a lot about how the financial side of the NFL is working now.