Word has it the Iranians have been lying all along. Stop the presses!
Benjamin Netanyahu dropped this knowledge on the world this evening with a dramatic televised address (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/04/30/netanyahu-set-to-reveal-dramatic-intelligence-about-iran-nuke-deal-report-says.html).
This is another example of what happens when foreign policy is made based on assumptions, "intelligence" and hypothetical scenarios. Quick recap: We thought Iran didn't have the bomb and had stopped trying to get it. Now we think they never stopped and aim to acquire it. What to make of Bibi's news?
Let's have a quick reality check. As members of the non-military, non-CIA public, most of us probably could never have made even an educated guess on what the realities of Iran's nuclear situation were in 2015. By the same token, what should we make of the news today? Who knows if it's accurate. We are not the beneficiaries of many examples of when intelligence has been right. It seems so difficult to ascertain what might or might not be happening in some shady facility in a foreign country buried in a mountainside that North Korea actually had to start detonating nukes before we were sure that they had them.
Here's a second part of the reality check. It would be wise not to push the Iranians as far as the NK regime was pushed. Tests of the same nature that NK undertook would almost certainly spark a hot war in the Middle East and it would probably be a really bad one. This is why a "deal" based on hypothetical and assumptive information was never really going to do the job. Either they are developing nukes or they aren't but either way, the trick is to get them to not a) feel like they need to acquire nukes; and b) try to get them not to feel like they need to use weapons. If a regime is as hostile, sinister and untrustworthy as we are told by the MSM that the Iranians are, then a piece of people will never offer a great deal of protection anyways. All a "deal" does it provide a false sense of security and help politicians promote their legacies (good work, Obama).
Perhaps promoting freedom, engaging in commerce, engaging in diplomacy and just generally ceasing to pester the Iranians would be a better idea. I wrote about the idea of leaving them alone last week (https://steemit.com/freedom/@cwparkes/here-s-an-idea-just-leave-them-alone) and I must say I am disappointed that things appear to be going in the exact opposite direction.
To be clear, there is absolutely nothing to be gained from lobbing a few cruise missiles or dropping a few smart bombs in Iran. They will not be an easy adversary and they also happen to be closely aligned with Russia and China. A war with them would be a real war, not just an invasion. Unless people really think this is the only course of action, it would be good to start thinking about how to get along really fast.
CW