Evolution of Price of Commodities (Crude Oil) and related Financial Markets (Energy Equities)

in oilandgas •  7 years ago  (edited)

The objective is to understand the oil and gas value chain and the (crude oil) and financial markets (energy equities) using traded and financial data. In the first stage, petroleum production, storage and supply system was studied, the value chain was reconstructed, and its dynamics is examined using available data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) database. Future price curves can provide market perception of future prices of the commodity. WTI NYMEX crude oil futures curves (using data from Bloomberg) were examined for the time period ranging from 2006 to 2015. Using these curves, the market perception of future oil prices were assessed based on their slopes. In the next phase, changes in oil market dynamics was investigated based on shale gas exploration in the U.S. The impact of shale exploration on oil price returns and realized variation were analyzed using the data from EIA for the time period between 2004 and 2015. 2010 was used as the start of shale exploration for the dummy variable of the regression analysis. In the third stage, the equities of some of oil exploration and production (E&P) companies mostly working related to shale gas in the Appalachian basin of USA were investigated based on their price movement.

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