Five parties, five politicians. Well, six, if we count the Trillium Party alongside the Green Party, the Libertarian Party, the New Democratic Party, the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberal Party. Of these six parties, only three are major power players. At the same time, Elizabeth May is a hefty reminder of how much just one politician can do (and influence) for smaller parties.
Ontario's economic future is hanging in the balance. Let's recall some details.
June 12th, 2014: The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor, which is Canadian normal for a Party Leader following an election defeat. Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader.
May 9th, 2015: Patrick Brown, the Conservative MP for Barrie, is elected the new leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. Newly elected Premier Kathleen Wynne orders a by-election for September 3, 2015. Patrick Brown is elected in Simcoe North during that by-election. Liberal Scandals begin shortly thereafter. Ontario Provincial Police laid charges against the Liberal Party fundraiser Gerry Lougheed Jr. in relation to the Sudbury by-election in February. One count of counselling an offence not committed, and one count of unlawfully influencing or negotiating appointments.
December 3rd, 2015: The Electoral Boundaries Act 2015, which increases the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, receives Royal Assent. This dramatically increases the number of available seats in the provincial legislature, ensuring that the next election would be a particularly active and hard-fought one.
October 19th, 2016: Two provincial by-elections are called for November 17 2016 to fill vacant seats in the Ottawa—Vanier and Niagara West—Glanbrook ridings. Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduces Bill 45, the Election Statute Law Amendment Act of 2016, which would move Ontario's fixed election date from the first Thursday in October to the first Thursday in June among other changes for First Reading. It received royal assent (and thus became law) in December 2016.
November 1st, 2016: Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (Director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection.
November 17th, 2016: The famously young Conservative candidate Sam Oosterhoff is elected in the Niagara West—Glanbrook by-election.
At this point, the Liberal Party no longer appears to have a public mandate and are rapidly losing support among their own base - skyrocketing hydro costs, increases in taxes and constant corruption scandals have turned most of the public against the party.
According to a new 2018 DART Insight poll, eight in ten Ontarians surveyed, or 81%, told the pollster that it’s time for someone else to run the province, and that only 19% believe Wynne has done a good enough job to be re-elected. A statement by DART Insight says that it polled voters during the “meltdown” of former PC leader Patrick Brown’s attempt to reclaim the party leadership. Furthermore, there was a clear preference for the Conservatives and a bias against the New Democrats.
“When given a choice as to who should govern Ontario, voters still preferred the Ontario PCs (44%) to do so versus the Ontario New Democratic Party (24%), the Ontario Liberal Party (19%) or another party of their choice (other 13%),” the firm says.
DART Insight found that the desire for political change was high across the province with 86% in Northern Ontario, 83% in Central Ontaroo and 78% in the City of Toronto calling for another provincial party to take the reins.
Let's keep going. We're still in 2017...
May 28th, 2017: Interesting new developments. PC Carleton—Mississippi Mills MPP Jack MacLaren is removed from his party's caucus over controversial remarks regarding the status of French in Ontario. After his explusion, MacLaren announced that he had joined the Trillium Party.
The Trillium Party of Ontario (French: Parti Trillium de l’Ontario) is a right-wing, social conservative political party in the Canadian province of Ontario founded in 2014. First contesting the 2014 General Election, the Trillium Party ran two candidates and received 397 votes. Despite these incredibly scant results, The Trillium Party gained its first member of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario after Jack MacLaren, the Progressive Conservative MPP for Carleton—Mississippi Mills announced he had joined the party on May 28, 2017 (Since the Trillium Party lacks official party status, MacLaren is listed as an independent by the Legislature.) The Trillium Party saw an increase in media attention as this marked the first time a party other than the Liberals, Progressive Conservatives, or New Democrats had maintained representation at Queen's Park since Robert Wayne Gibson sat as a Liberal-Labour MPP for Kenora in 1966.
Pay attention, Libertarians.
The Trillium Party outlines a number of priorities, focusing on calls for monthly health care statements, reduction in time between application and granting of practicing licences for medical professionals from overseas, involving parents in education issues, and increasing financial support for police. Additional policies have included introducing legislation on referenda, addressing corruption through the office of the Auditor General, implementing whistle-blower protection legislation, allowing free votes by MPPs in the legislature, and opposing updates to the province's sexual education curriculum. Take that however you will.
Welcome 2018.
January 24th, 2018: Progressive Conservative Party leader Patrick Brown is accused by two women of committing sexual misconduct. Brown denies the allegations and is later vindicated. He goes on to begin suing the media for false reporting and fighting back against his accusers in court. None the less, long before he can completely clear his name he resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives (again, fairly normal), leaving Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli as interim leader just months before the June 2018 election. Brown would later be ejected from the caucus, forced to sit as an Independent.
March 10th, 2018: After a tumultuous leadership race, the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario elected the controversial Doug Ford as it's new leader.
The election is on June 7th, 2018.
What does this all mean for Libertarian types like myself? Well, almost Nothing... almost. There are some important details worth highlighting. The Liberals are clearly corrupt and incompetent. The Progressive Conservatives are disastrously controversial and have already displayed cracks in their unity after leadership runner-up Christine Elliot contested the results of the leadership race. The Democrats are waning in popularity as the dangers of unhinged socialism are becoming clear again.
But most importantly? The Libertarian Party is running a full slate with 124 candidates, a proper Party infrastructure, and a strong leader in Allen Small. And in the aftermath of an elected official crossing the floor to join the little-known Trillium Party, anything is possible. Perhaps Libertarians should be head-hunting for Liberty-Conservatives in the PC Party who are willing to cross the floor and make a statement.
In June, we're going to find out one way or another.