Clarifying the "reduced severity" reports of Omicron.

in pandemic •  3 years ago 

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This thread makes an important point that's largely overlooked. Much of the "reduced severity" of Omicron comes from a change in the mix of people infected, with Omicron hitting a larger share of vaxxed/previously infected, while Delta is hitting mostly naive subjects.

If Omicron is, say, 70% as severe for an unvaxxed, uninfected person, it might generate only 30% as many hospitalizations for the population as a whole, because the vaxxed or previously infected are unlikely to go to the hospital for any strain.

https://twitter.com/_nickdavies/status/1473941671196905478?s=20

If you're unvaxxed/uninfected, Omicron is probably slightly less severe but more contagious. If you're vaxxed, it's probably slightly less severe, but Delta wasn't too bad either - but your odds of getting infected are much higher.

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While January looks to be awful for US hospitals, there's another reason for hope.

South Africa's apparent peak was real, and it's possible that London may be peaking. (UK as a whole still going up.) If that holds, it's unexpected, and I'm not sure what the cause is. But it would mean that the total number infected by Omicron may be 1/2 of some previous waves, but packed into an incredibly short window that can slam the hospitals.

Again, too early to draw firm conclusions, but let's hope for the best case - lower severity and a fast end to the wave.

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